March 5, 2024 - AGS

AGS's Secret Weapon: The Whispers of International Domination

While most analysts are busy dissecting PlayAGS's impressive domestic performance, a quiet revolution is brewing within the company's international strategy. Hidden beneath the headlines of record-breaking domestic EGM sales and surging interactive revenues lies a potent undercurrent: AGS is strategically positioning itself for a major international expansion, and the evidence is right there in the Q4 2023 earnings call transcript.

Sure, AGS has always had a presence in Mexico, but Kimo Akiona, the CFO, let slip a telling detail during the Q4 call: "Going into 2024, and with the launch of our newer cabinets, like the Spectra family, we really put a plan in place to kind of be able to address the broader Latin America market, Central and South, and address the Caribbean." This isn't just about dipping their toes in new waters; this is a concerted effort to capture a significant chunk of the Latin American and Caribbean gaming market.

Think about the implications. AGS has been honing its skills in the fiercely competitive North American market, where it has seen its customer base explode, growing from under 100 to over 180 in just a few years. This expansion reflects a successful strategy of offering diverse, high-performing products that resonate with a wide range of operators. Now, armed with a potent product portfolio, including the Spectra family, AGS is ready to unleash this formula in a region ripe for disruption.

AGS is not simply replicating its North American strategy; it's adapting and tailoring it to the specific needs of these new markets. Akiona alluded to this by highlighting the development of "games that obviously are made for that market, or nuanced to be able to work in those markets." This demonstrates a keen understanding of the cultural nuances and player preferences that will be crucial for success in Latin America and the Caribbean.

But this is only the beginning. AGS's international ambitions stretch far beyond Latin America. CEO David Lopez hinted at a broader vision, stating, "We know that our next step, hasn't been talked about yet, but our next step into the international market just opens up that much more white space." While Lopez remained tight-lipped about the specifics, his statement suggests that AGS is laying the groundwork for expansion into even more lucrative international markets, potentially including the booming markets of Australia and Asia.

AGS Financial Performance and Projections

AGS is poised for a period of transformative growth. Its strategic international expansion could unlock significant new revenue streams, driving substantial EBITDA and free cash flow growth in the years to come.

MetricQ3 2023Q4 20232024 Projection
Adjusted EBITDA$40 million+Not DisclosedContinued Growth Expected
Free Cash Flow$10 million+$11 million25% or more growth
Net Leverage3.4x3.2x2.7x - 3.0x

EGM Sales Growth

AGS's global EGM unit sales have shown impressive growth, indicating strong product demand and market penetration.

AGS Growth Drivers

AGS's international push will be fueled by the same potent combination that has driven AGS's domestic success: innovative products, a diverse and talented team, and a relentless focus on execution. AGS has already demonstrated its commitment to investing in R&D, maintaining a consistent 12% of revenue allocation despite pressures to expand margins. This commitment will be crucial for adapting its products to new markets and ensuring its international portfolio is just as compelling as its domestic offering.

The financial implications are significant. With the added leverage of international sales, AGS's EBITDA and free cash flow could climb dramatically, further strengthening its financial position and unlocking shareholder value. Imagine a future where AGS's innovative cabinets and compelling game themes are found not just in Las Vegas or Atlantic City, but also in Buenos Aires, Rio de Janeiro, and Macau.

"Fun Fact: AGS is one of the few publicly traded gaming suppliers headquartered in Las Vegas. This provides unique access to the pulse of the industry, a distinct advantage as AGS navigates the complexities of international expansion."

In conclusion, while AGS's domestic performance continues to impress, the real story may lie in its quiet but determined international aspirations. As the company sets its sights on new horizons, it's not just about capturing market share; it's about reshaping the global gaming landscape. And with the right combination of innovation, talent, and execution, AGS may be on its way to becoming a true international gaming powerhouse.