The Monthly Four · September 2026 · list no. 15 · picked 2026-09-01

Four stocks to buy this month.

Chosen by a rule, not a pundit. At each month-end, a model that has read 174,989 earnings calls picks four companies whose shares have fallen but whose latest call reads calm, specific and underwritten. Equal amounts in each. Held six or twelve months. Scored in public against the S&P 500, median and hit rate included.

See every past pick and how it did
+33% / yrover the S&P 500 in the 2019–2025 backtest. Worst year −12%. Six of seven years positive.
8 of 14monthly lists that beat the S&P 500 since Jun 2025, at Aug 27 prices.
THE MONTHLY FOURSeptember 2026
Priced at the Aug 27 close · 4 stocks · equal amounts · 1 twelve-month hold + 3 six-month holds
All four have fallen into the bottom third of 12-month performance, and each one's latest earnings call passed the quality screen.
Names lockedRule: fallen stock, calm call
Picked 2026-09-01
1
Ticker & name locked12-month holdCall Aug 12 · Grade D

Guidance lowered on a D-grade call, with demand mixed and margins contracting. Management stayed specific and unevasive and underwrote its numbers through 17 analyst questions, one left hanging.

Guidance loweredMargins contractingGuidance underwrittenCandor 7 · Evasion 3Expected 45-day move ±9.6%
2
Ticker & name locked6-month holdCall Aug 19 · Grade C

Guidance held on a C-grade call, with demand accelerating and margins expanding. The delivery was measured and underwrote its numbers; the skeptic on the call was reassured through 15 analyst questions, one left hanging.

Guidance heldDemand acceleratingMargins expandingGuidance underwrittenSkeptic reassuredCandor 7 · Evasion 4
3
Ticker & name locked6-month holdCall Aug 5 · Grade C+

Guidance held on a C+-grade call, with demand accelerating and margins expanding. The delivery was measured and underwrote its numbers; the skeptic on the call was reassured through 11 analyst questions, one left hanging.

Guidance heldDemand acceleratingMargins expandingGuidance underwrittenSkeptic reassuredCandor 6 · Evasion 3
4
Ticker & name locked6-month holdCall Aug 3 · Grade C

Guidance lowered on a C-grade call, with demand accelerating and margins expanding and pricing being raised. Management stayed specific and unevasive and underwrote its numbers; the skeptic on the call was reassured through 10 analyst questions, none left hanging.

Guidance loweredDemand acceleratingMargins expandingPricing raisingGuidance underwrittenSkeptic reassured
Tickers, entry prices and the full reports for all four, plus every month's picks since Jun 2025.
Track record · prices through 2026-08-27

Every pick, every month, graded in public.

Past months are open. Each pick is measured from its month-end price against the S&P 500 over the same days. We show the median and the hit rate next to the average, because the average alone would flatter us.

Test on past years: return above the S&P 500years the rule never saw · long only · no leverage
+100%+50%S&P+7’17−17’18+6’19+117’20+16’21−12’22+54’23+28’24+23’25
Model era, 2019–2025: average +33% a year, worst −12%Before its era, 2017–18: the rule was built on 2019 onward and only treads water there
+40%average pick, above the S&P, live
0%median pick, above the S&P, live
13 / 27picks ahead of the S&P 500
Live scorecard: return above the S&P 500 so farbought at the month-end close
MonthPicksPicks vs S&P
Jun 2025MU +634%+634%
Jul 2025CNC +129%+129%
Aug 2025CSTM +82%+82%
Sep 2025AEO −18%−18%
Oct 2025HRI −4%−4%
Nov 2025INSP −64%−64%
Dec 2025TXG +285%+285%
Jan 2026PII −11%−11%
Feb 2026SRPT +16%+16%
Mar 2026RIOT +50%DK +37%AMRC −29% ×2+8%
Apr 2026PBF +51%CNC +14%UNH −1%ALGN −17%+12%
May 2026SRPT +19%STAA −27%AMRC −38%RUN −48%−24%
Jun 2026NEOG +27%FLR 0% ×2NWL −7%+5%
Jul 2026SPSC +12%CNC +2%PII −8%PBF −8%−1%
Sep 20264 picks locked · this monthentered

Read the shape before you buy. Most picks lose to the index. A few multiply, and they carry the whole list. That is the edge this rule harvests, which is why it holds all four stocks for the full term and never sells a winner early. Months before Mar 2026 had only the twelve-month pick. Lists before this one were generated after the fact by the fixed rule; from October 2026, each month's four are published before their buy price is known.

Why the model buys what it buys

Every pick starts as one of these.

TSLATesla, Inc.
Q4 2025 call · 2026-01-28 · 5 analysts · 5 questions · 500 / 500 checks
Live exampleOpen in full →
D
Call grade · Bottom 26% of 174,989 calls
Weak call. Management raised guidance against accelerating demand and expanding margins. The delivery was rich in specifics, promotional in tone.
ToneResultTypical range · middle half of all callsFlag
Candor6 /9
—
Evasion4 /9
H
Specificity7 /9
—
Promotion8 /9
H
Stress3 /9
—
Complexity8 /9
H
Since the quarter before · Q3 2025 → Q4 2025
Guidance raised Demand accelerating Margins expanding Pricing stable ⚑ Critic ammunition ⚑ Question left hanging

The same 500 yes-or-no checks are put to every call since 2015, each answer saved with its reasoning. Tone is scored against the whole corpus, like a lab value against a reference range. The grade describes the conversation. The Monthly Four rule then asks a narrower question: among calls that pass the quality screen, which fallen stocks does the model score as likely to recover?

Every company's previous quarter is free, in full. The newest quarter and the Monthly Four are $1 for your first week.
Graded this week · 8,126 calls so far in 2026
FROAug 28
Frontline's
newestprev B+
BJAug 28
BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc.
newestprev B
JFINAug 28
Jiayin Group Inc.
newestprev D
MNSOAug 28
MINISO Group Holding Limited
newestprev C
HOVAug 27
Hovnanian Enterprises, Inc.
newestprev C+
HRLAug 27
Hormel Foods Corporation
newestprev C+
ATHMAug 27
Autohome Inc.
newestprev F
AAPAug 27
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
newestprev B
What we claim, and what we don't

A rule you can audit, not a hunch you have to trust.

The picks come from a rule, fixed before we buy.

Four stocks a month, published before their buy price is known, scored against the S&P 500 with the median and hit rate shown. Losers stay on the scorecard. How we killed 1,600 strategies before keeping this one

A grade is not a forecast.

The call grade describes the conversation: candor, specificity, what was dodged and what was underwritten. Only the Monthly Four carries a buy, and only as a set of four. We do not rate individual stocks buy or sell. How the grade is built

Its weakness, up front.

A rule that buys fallen stocks suffers in a slow grind-down bear market. In 2018-style conditions it lost 17% to the index. If you cannot hold through a year like that, these picks are not for you.

Pricing

One plan. The first week costs a dollar.

You pay $1 today. On day 8 it becomes $99 a month unless you cancel, which takes one click.

$1 for the first 7 days, then $99 / month. Cancel anytime.
  • This month's four picks with their buy prices, and every month since Jun 2025
  • Next month's four by email at month-end, before the buy price is known
  • The newest quarter for every company: grade, tone, expected move, all 500 answers with reasoning
  • Screeners and the 367-question research bank, 200 questions a month
From $500 a month, for funds and teams
  • The full ranked list behind the four, not just the top four
  • 2,000 questions a month, team seats
  • Priority support
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