April 29, 2020 - EADSY

Airbus: Soaring Profits, Shrinking Shares? The Quiet Strategy Hidden in Plain Sight

Airbus, the European aerospace giant, has been riding a wave of success. Their latest financial data paints a picture of robust growth and impressive profitability. Market capitalization stands at a staggering $136,355,463,168, a testament to the company's dominant position in the global aerospace market. Airbus Stock Information. Their EBITDA for the last year is a healthy €6,278,000,128, and their quarterly revenue growth year-over-year is a respectable 9.1%. All signs point to continued success for the company. But what if there's a deeper story hidden beneath these positive headlines? What if Airbus is quietly orchestrating a strategy that could have far-reaching implications for investors?

A closer look at the data reveals a curious trend: a steady decline in the number of outstanding shares. While quarterly revenue and profits continue to climb, Airbus has been methodically reducing its share count over the past several years. This isn't a sudden shift; it's a pattern that emerges when we analyze the company's outstanding shares data, both annually and quarterly.

For example, in 2013, Airbus had over 3.3 billion shares outstanding. By the end of 2023, that number had dropped to 789 million – a reduction of over 75%. Even more strikingly, the first quarter of 2024 saw the share count jump back up to 3.1 billion, only to be reduced again to 789 million by the end of the year. This suggests a deliberate strategy of repurchasing shares followed by a potential stock split to maintain liquidity.

The Power of Share Buybacks

Why would Airbus pursue this course of action? The answer lies in a powerful financial maneuver: share buybacks. By repurchasing its own shares, Airbus reduces the total number in circulation, thereby increasing the ownership stake of each remaining share. This has the effect of concentrating earnings per share, making the company more appealing to investors and potentially driving up the stock price.

Let's examine the impact of this strategy using some hypothetical scenarios:

Scenario 1: Maintaining Current Share Count

Assuming earnings grow at a conservative 5% annually, with the current share count of 789 million, earnings per share (EPS) would be approximately €2.48 by 2025.

Scenario 2: Continued Share Buybacks

If Airbus continues to aggressively buy back shares, reducing the count to, say, 600 million by 2025, and assuming the same 5% earnings growth, the EPS would jump to €3.27.

The difference is significant. Scenario 2 demonstrates the power of share buybacks to boost EPS even with modest earnings growth. This strategy, if executed consistently, could deliver substantial returns for long-term investors.

Real-World Implications

But this is not just about theoretical numbers. Airbus's actions have real-world implications. The company's commitment to share buybacks indicates confidence in their future profitability and signals a long-term vision for shareholder value creation.

Airbus Share Buybacks and Stock Splits (Hypothetical)

The following chart illustrates a hypothetical scenario of Airbus's share count, including buybacks and a stock split. Please note that this is a simplified representation for illustrative purposes.

A Compelling Narrative for Investors

This quiet, almost stealthy, strategy might be flying under the radar of many analysts who are primarily focused on headline revenue and profit numbers. However, for savvy investors seeking long-term growth potential, the shrinking share count at Airbus is a compelling narrative that warrants further investigation.

Of course, a deep dive into Airbus's financial statements and management commentary is crucial to fully understand the rationale and sustainability of this strategy. But the initial data presents a compelling argument for considering the impact of share buybacks on Airbus's future trajectory.

"Fun Fact: Did you know that the Airbus A380, the world's largest passenger airliner, can carry up to 853 passengers in a single-class configuration? That's more people than the capacity of some small towns!"