February 15, 2024 - ALYAF
Hidden within Alithya Group Inc.'s (ALYAF) recent Q3 2024 earnings call transcript lies a revelation that seems to have slipped past most analysts. It's not their record gross margin or their impressive debt reduction – though those are certainly noteworthy. No, the real story here is a subtle shift in strategy, a quiet revolution that could propel this unassuming IT firm into the big leagues.
For years, Alithya has been known for its expertise in Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) implementations, particularly in the financial sector. They've consistently delivered, quarter after quarter, boasting a remarkable number of successful go-lives. But lurking within this seemingly stable performance was a vulnerability – overreliance on a single sector notorious for its cyclical spending patterns.
Now, the transcript reveals, Alithya is breaking free from these shackles. Their recent contract wins, particularly those massive deals in the Quebec healthcare sector, signal a deliberate diversification into government services. It's a strategic pivot that couldn't be more timely. As Paul Raymond, Alithya's CEO, astutely observed during the call, government spending tends to rise when the private sector tightens its belt, a phenomenon clearly playing out in the current economic climate.
This shift isn't just about chasing the money, though. Alithya is leveraging its hard-earned expertise in complex ERP implementations to gain a foothold in a sector hungry for modernization. As Raymond noted, their success with U.S. healthcare systems gave them the credibility to win those coveted Quebec contracts. They're not just competing on price; they're offering proven capabilities and a track record of delivering on complex, high-stakes projects.
But here's where things get truly interesting. Remember those record gross margins? Well, Alithya's success in the government sector could amplify this trend. Government contracts, often large and long-term, give Alithya greater control over project execution. This means more reliance on their permanent staff, better utilization rates, and less dependence on high-cost subcontractors.
Let's crunch some numbers. In Q3, Alithya achieved a gross margin of 31.3%, a company record. Now, imagine the impact as they ramp up those large government projects, potentially shifting the balance of their revenue mix towards this higher-margin sector. Could we be looking at gross margins approaching 35% or even higher in the near future?
This potential for margin expansion, combined with the stability of government revenue streams, paints a compelling picture for Alithya's future growth prospects. It's a story of quiet strategic brilliance, of a company leveraging its core strengths to seize an emerging opportunity.
And there's one more piece to the puzzle that shouldn't be overlooked – Alithya's commitment to smart shoring. With operations in India, Eastern Europe, and Morocco, they're strategically positioned to further optimize their cost structure and enhance their margins. While smart shoring currently represents only 6% of their workforce, the company clearly sees this as a key lever for future growth and profitability.
In a world obsessed with flashy tech startups and unicorn valuations, Alithya may seem like an unlikely candidate for explosive growth. But their strategic foresight, combined with their proven execution capabilities, suggests a different narrative. They're not chasing the latest hype cycle; they're building a solid foundation for long-term success. And in the often volatile world of IT services, that's a strategy worth betting on.
"Fun Fact: Alithya's name is a blend of the Greek words "aletheia" (truth) and "dynamis" (power), reflecting their commitment to delivering truth through the power of technology."