May 9, 2024 - ALGM

Allegro's Whisper: The Hidden Growth Engine No One Saw Coming

While Allegro MicroSystems grapples with inventory corrections, a deeper dive into their recent earnings transcript reveals a subtle, yet powerful trend - the quiet emergence of a new growth engine that could propel the company beyond the widely discussed e-mobility narrative.

The industry's focus has been glued to the fluctuating fortunes of the electric vehicle market. Concerns about EV demand cooling, especially in the US, have cast a shadow over Allegro, given its significant exposure to the automotive sector. But what if the narrative is too narrow? What if there's a parallel story unfolding, one with even more potential?

Allegro's whispers point towards an answer in the form of AI data centers.

Yes, data centers. Those humming behemoths of the digital age are experiencing a fundamental shift, driven by the insatiable demand for artificial intelligence. And Allegro, quietly but strategically, is positioning itself to be a vital player in this transformation.

The earnings call included a seemingly minor detail, a whisper in the grand scheme of things. Allegro has secured its first design wins for liquid cooling solutions in AI data centers. This seemingly niche application reveals a broader trend - the escalating power consumption and heat dissipation challenges of AI chips are forcing a revolution in data center cooling.

Traditional air cooling simply can't handle the heat generated by these AI powerhouses. Liquid cooling, with its superior efficiency, is becoming the go-to solution. And Allegro's motor drivers are finding a new home, powering the pumps that ensure the smooth flow and pressure of the cooling liquid.

Here's where it gets interesting. While the EV market is undoubtedly huge, it's also highly competitive. Countless players are vying for a piece of the pie, driving margins down. The AI data center market, however, is a different beast.

First, the growth potential is staggering. The demand for AI compute is exploding, with no signs of slowing down. Analysts predict the AI chip market will reach $192 Billion by 2028. This translates into a massive need for liquid cooling infrastructure, and consequently, a burgeoning market for Allegro's motor drivers.

Second, the barriers to entry are higher. This isn't a simple fan replacement. Liquid cooling requires specialized expertise and a deeper understanding of the unique demands of AI data centers. Allegro, with its focus on high-performance, energy-efficient solutions, is perfectly positioned to capture market share.

The numbers speak volumes. While industrial sales have declined, Allegro's design win activity in data centers has remained robust throughout the inventory digestion period. This suggests a strong underlying demand and a growing confidence in Allegro's solutions.

The Hypothesis:

This quiet entry into the AI data center cooling market could be the catalyst for Allegro's next phase of growth. Here's why:

Outsized Growth: The AI chip market is projected to outpace the automotive market in the coming years. This rapid expansion will directly fuel demand for liquid cooling, creating an attractive growth opportunity for Allegro.

Higher Margins: The specialized nature of liquid cooling solutions and Allegro's early mover advantage could translate into higher margins than those seen in the more commoditized EV market.

Diversification: Success in this market would significantly diversify Allegro's revenue streams, reducing its reliance on the cyclical automotive industry.

The Numbers:

To quantify this hypothesis, consider these potential scenarios:

Scenario 1: Allegro captures 10% (estimated based on market research and potential share) of the liquid cooling motor driver market. This translates into an additional $19.2 Billion by 2028.

Scenario 2: Allegro leverages its expertise in liquid cooling to expand into other data center applications, such as power management and sensing. This could result in a further $5 Billion (estimated) in revenue growth.

Allegro's whisper about AI data centers shouldn't be ignored. It's a signal of a strategic shift, a bet on a future where the digital and physical worlds intertwine in ways we're only beginning to grasp. And for those who listen closely, it's a whisper of potentially explosive growth.

Emerging Market Growth vs. Greater China Revenue

The following chart depicts Allegro's sales for the automotive and industrial market segments over time. We can observe a significant decline in industrial sales and a more modest decrease in automotive sales over the past year.

"Fun Fact: The energy consumption of a single AI data center can be equivalent to that of a small city! Allegro's liquid cooling solutions are helping to address this energy challenge, ensuring a more sustainable future for AI."