February 8, 2024 - ACB
Amidst the buzz of Aurora Cannabis' Q3 2024 earnings call, focused on Australian acquisitions and positive free cash flow projections, a significant detail went unnoticed. It wasn't a financial metric or a strategic move, but a quiet revelation about Bevo Farms, Aurora's venture into controlled environment agriculture – a move with the potential to disrupt the orchid market.
Aurora's massive 800,000 square foot facility in Edmonton, 'Sky,' once dedicated to ambitious cannabis production, is being transformed. Bevo Farms, leveraging their expertise in controlled environment agriculture, is turning this facility into an orchid haven, strategically entering a lucrative global market.
While analysts were busy analyzing the MedReleaf Australia acquisition, the silent orchid revolution brewing in Edmonton was largely overlooked. This is understandable, as Bevo's current vegetable and plant propagation business operates seasonally, with most revenue concentrated in the first half of the year. It's easy to see it as a predictable sideline, dwarfed by the dynamic global medical cannabis market.
However, Bevo's orchid venture has disruptive potential. The global orchid market is massive, estimated at $10.7 billion in 2022 and projected to reach $17.2 billion by 2028. Dominated by Southeast Asia, known for its low-cost production, this market could be significantly impacted by Bevo's entry into the North American market. Their focus on controlled environment agriculture and proximity to major consumer hubs present a significant advantage.
The sheer scale of the Sky facility allows Bevo to cultivate orchids on an unprecedented scale in North America. This, combined with their meticulous cultivation approach and the elimination of long-distance transportation costs from Southeast Asia, positions them to dominate the North American orchid market.
This is not just a local play. Bevo's CEO, Leo Benne, has expressed ambitions to expand geographically. With orchids, they have a universally appealing product capable of penetrating new markets beyond North America. This aligns perfectly with Aurora's global aspirations, creating a synergistic growth engine.
"During the Q2 2024 earnings call, Aurora projected that Bevo could potentially double their revenue and EBITDA over the next two to three years. This projection was made before factoring in the full impact of the orchid venture. With the Sky facility coming online, this doubling projection could be conservative."
The following chart illustrates a hypothetical scenario of Bevo's revenue growth, including the potential contribution from the orchid venture.
Bevo's fiscal 2023 revenue was $22 million. Doubling that in the next two years would put them at $44 million by fiscal 2025. Considering the orchid market's size and Bevo's ability to offer competitive pricing, it's reasonable to hypothesize that the orchid venture alone could generate an additional $22 million in revenue by 2025.
This would bring Bevo's total revenue to $66 million, tripling their current revenue and exceeding the initial doubling projection. The impact on Aurora's bottom line could be substantial, potentially boosting their profitability beyond expectations. This is a hypothesis, subject to market dynamics and consumer preferences, but the potential is undeniable.
While analysts focus on Aurora's cannabis performance, the silent orchid revolution taking root in Edmonton could become their most potent growth driver. The seeds of this revolution are being sown, promising a bright future for both Aurora and the North American orchid market.
"Fun Fact: Orchids are known for their diversity, with over 28,000 species worldwide! They come in a wide array of shapes, sizes, and colors, appealing to a global consumer base."