November 11, 2023 - BMRPF

B&M's Stealthy Shift: The Untold Story Behind Their "Clean" Stock and Soaring Margins

B&M European Value Retail, the discount retail giant, has been making headlines with its robust growth and impressive financial performance. The company boasts double-digit top-line growth, a 16% increase in EBITDA, and a whopping £866 million in operating cash flow. But hidden beneath these dazzling figures lies a subtle yet profound shift in B&M's operating strategy, one that has flown under the radar of most analysts.

B&M is quietly transforming its supply chain, leveraging its growing scale and sophisticated sourcing relationships to achieve an unprecedented level of inventory efficiency. This "clean" stock strategy, as the company calls it, is the unsung hero behind B&M's soaring margins and sets the stage for continued profitability in the face of economic uncertainty.

The clues are scattered throughout the recent earnings call transcripts. Alejandro Russo, B&M's CEO, repeatedly emphasizes the "cleanliness" of the company's stock, going so far as to say that the "spring/summer season is in the bag," a statement loaded with implications for future margin performance. Mike Schmidt, CFO, chimes in, highlighting the company's remarkable ability to reduce stock levels by £100 million without impacting availability, a feat unheard of among US retail giants.

But what exactly does "clean" stock mean? It's more than just minimizing excess inventory and clearance sales. It's about orchestrating a symphony of operational excellence across buying, supply chain, and retail, resulting in a lean, agile, and responsive system that can adapt to shifting consumer demand with unmatched precision.

Consider the company's approach to sourcing. B&M boasts "phenomenal setup on multi lines" in China, leveraging its high-volume purchasing power to secure favorable pricing and flexible production schedules. This allows the company to adopt a "test and repeat" model, minimizing initial order quantities and replenishing best-selling items rapidly, effectively eliminating the risk of accumulating dead stock.

This agility extends to B&M's UK supply chain, described as "humming on all cylinders" by Russo. With distribution center availability hovering between 98% and 99%, the company can replenish stores with remarkable efficiency, ensuring shelves remain stocked while maintaining historically low inventory levels.

This "clean" stock strategy translates directly to improved margins. Lower storage costs, minimal markdowns, and reduced working capital requirements all contribute to B&M's impressive profitability. And as the company continues to ramp up store openings, this lean inventory model becomes even more potent, amplifying the return on every new asset.

Hypothesis and Evidence

The hypothesis is clear: B&M's "clean" stock strategy is not a temporary fix but a fundamental shift that will fuel long-term profitability. Here's how the numbers back it up:

Reduced Inventory: £100 million reduction in inventory year-on-year. Source

Improved Availability: Distribution center availability consistently at 98%-99%. Source

Strong Trading Margins: "Spring/summer season is in the bag," implying minimal markdowns and strong sell-through rates. Source

Increased EBITDA: Projected growth in EBITDA for FY 2024 on any week basis (52, 53, or 54 weeks). Source

EBITDA Growth Projection

The following chart illustrates the projected growth of B&M's EBITDA, based on management statements and historical trends.

While other retailers scramble to navigate a volatile economic landscape, B&M is strategically positioning itself for continued success. By leveraging its scale, refining its sourcing relationships, and optimizing its supply chain, the company is building a fortress of operational excellence, with "clean" stock as its cornerstone. This strategic shift, while subtle, holds the key to unlocking B&M's long-term growth potential and solidifying its position as a discount retail powerhouse.

"Fun Fact: B&M's name stands for "Billington & Mayman," the founders of the company."