BigCommerce, the Austin-based e-commerce platform provider, has spent the past two years tightening its belt and focusing on profitability. The results are impressive: a 26-point improvement in non-GAAP operating profit margin in just six quarters, achieving adjusted EBITDA breakeven for the full year, and delivering $13 million in operating cash flow in Q4 2023.

But something else is happening beneath the surface, something that might have slipped past the radar of most analysts: BigCommerce is laying the groundwork for a potentially explosive growth spurt in 2024.

While the official guidance for the full year predicts a 6% to 8% revenue growth, a deeper dive into the transcripts reveals strategic moves and operational improvements pointing towards a much more aggressive trajectory.

The first clue lies in the company's strategic shift from customer acquisition to customer retention and expansion. BigCommerce is no longer chasing new logos at any cost. Instead, they are building a more balanced growth profile, focusing on enhancing the value they deliver to existing customers, driving higher average revenue per account (ARPA), and boosting net revenue retention (NRR). This shift is evident in the restructuring efforts, the consolidation of go-to-market teams, and the emphasis on cross-selling products like Feedonomics and Makeswift.

The second clue comes from BigCommerce's strategic partnerships, particularly with Google. BigCommerce enjoys a privileged relationship with Google, receiving early access to Google's cutting-edge AI technology. This partnership allows BigCommerce to differentiate itself by incorporating Google's AI capabilities into its own product offerings, such as product descriptions, customer recommendations, and semantic search. This gives BigCommerce a competitive edge, allowing them to provide merchants with more sophisticated tools and features that drive growth and success.

But perhaps the most compelling evidence for a potential growth surge lies in the competitive landscape, specifically the recent, aggressive price hike by Shopify, their main competitor. Shopify's move creates a massive opportunity for BigCommerce to capture market share. BigCommerce is now significantly more affordable than Shopify Plus, offering a compelling value proposition to merchants seeking a more cost-effective and flexible platform. This advantage, coupled with BigCommerce's robust feature set, particularly in multi-storefront, multi-geography, and B2B capabilities, positions them to attract disgruntled Shopify customers looking for alternatives.

Let's crunch some numbers. BigCommerce currently has an ARR of $337 million. Assuming they achieve their target of 20%+ growth, as projected in their last Investor Day, their ARR could reach $404 million by the end of 2024. This growth would be fueled by a combination of increased ARPA, improved NRR, and new customer acquisitions.

The recent price hike by Shopify could further accelerate this growth. If BigCommerce can successfully capitalize on this opportunity, attracting even a small fraction of Shopify Plus customers, their ARR could potentially surpass $450 million in 2024, a significant jump from their current position.

BigCommerce is also making significant investments in technology and product development. Their new Catalyst platform, a groundbreaking composable storefront reference architecture, positions them at the forefront of the e-commerce technology landscape. Catalyst makes composable more approachable and accessible, particularly for North American businesses who have been slower to adopt this approach. This innovation will likely attract more technically sophisticated merchants seeking greater flexibility and control over their e-commerce stacks.

BigCommerce Revenue Growth

The following chart shows the actual and projected growth in BigCommerce's Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR).

While macroeconomic uncertainty remains a factor, the underlying fundamentals of the e-commerce industry are strong. The shift towards online shopping is here to stay, and BigCommerce is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend. Their focus on profitability, strategic partnerships, technological innovation, and competitive advantage paint a picture of a company poised for significant growth. 2024 could be the year BigCommerce finally steps out of the shadows and establishes itself as a dominant force in the e-commerce industry.

"Fun Fact: BigCommerce powers over 60,000 online stores in over 150 countries. This global reach, coupled with their strong B2B capabilities and multi-storefront functionality, positions them as a strong contender in the growing international e-commerce market."