May 1, 2024 - FANG
Diamondback Energy, a giant in the Permian Basin, just reported another solid quarter. Their stock is up, their production is steady, and their merger with Endeavor Energy is on track to close later this year. But buried within the mundane details of their earnings call lies a potential goldmine that seems to have slipped past the radar of most analysts: Cottonmouth Ventures.
Cottonmouth Ventures, a subsidiary so new it's barely mentioned in Diamondback's investor presentations, is their foray into "new ventures." On the surface, it sounds like a typical corporate venture capital arm, dabbling in various tech projects with potential applications in the oil and gas industry. But Diamondback isn't just writing checks; they're actively participating, contributing molecules, expertise, and a relentless drive for efficiency to projects that could reshape their future and the future of the Permian Basin.
The most intriguing project on Cottonmouth's plate is the Verde Clean Fuels Partnership. Diamondback, in partnership with Verde, is scoping out a gas-to-gasoline plant in the Permian. The plant, poised for a potential final investment decision by the end of the year, would convert 35 million cubic feet of natural gas daily into 3,000 barrels of gasoline. While this might seem like a drop in the bucket for a company projected to spend $4-5 billion annually, consider the implications.
Firstly, the Permian Basin is drowning in natural gas. Associated gas production, a byproduct of oil drilling, is soaring, outstripping pipeline capacity and depressing Waha gas prices. Diamondback is already proactively securing pipeline capacity to mitigate this pricing risk, but what if they could convert this "waste product" into a valuable commodity like gasoline? The Verde project, if successful, could be replicated across their vast acreage, transforming Diamondback from a price-taker in the gas market to a value-creator.
Secondly, this project aligns perfectly with Diamondback's stated goal of investing in income-generating projects that directly offset their Scope 1 emissions. While the company acknowledges that such projects will represent a small percentage of their overall capital program, the Verde project could be a significant first step towards a more sustainable future. It demonstrates a commitment to reducing emissions while simultaneously capitalizing on an abundant, low-priced resource.
Diamondback's history suggests they're not afraid to be bold. They've grown through strategic acquisitions, embracing the best practices of their acquired companies while maintaining a flat, non-siloed organization that thrives on trust and a shared commitment to efficiency. This "small company" culture, embedded within a growing behemoth, allows Diamondback to move fast, adapt quickly, and seize opportunities that others might miss.
Here's where the hypothesis gets interesting: If the Verde project proves successful, what's to stop Diamondback from scaling it up dramatically? They have the acreage, the gas, and the management expertise to become a major gasoline producer. Imagine a scenario where 10% of their future capital program is dedicated to these gas-to-gasoline plants. That's $400-500 million annually, potentially building multiple plants that could convert billions of cubic feet of gas daily into hundreds of thousands of barrels of gasoline.
This scenario, while still hypothetical, has the potential to be transformative for Diamondback. It could create a new revenue stream, mitigate gas pricing volatility, and significantly reduce their environmental footprint. It would also position them as a leader in the energy transition, showcasing a proactive approach to sustainability that goes beyond mere lip service.
Diamondback Energy is focused on improving capital efficiency, targeting a 10% reduction in cost per lateral foot. This is driven by longer lateral lengths, efficiencies in completions, and softening service costs.
Analysts might be focused on the immediate impact of the Endeavor merger, but smart investors should be keeping a close eye on Cottonmouth Ventures. This tiny subsidiary, armed with Diamondback's characteristic efficiency and bold vision, could be the spark that ignites a whole new chapter in the company's story.
Reference: Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Seeking Alpha
"Fun Fact: Diamondback Energy is named after the Western Diamondback Rattlesnake, a species native to the Permian Basin where the company operates. This reflects their connection to the region and their bold approach to business."