February 20, 2024 - DPZUF
Domino's Pizza Enterprises (DPE) delivered a mixed bag of results in its latest earnings call, leaving analysts scratching their heads. While the focus, understandably, remains on inflationary pressures, stubborn European markets, and the exciting new acquisition in Southeast Asia, something far more intriguing slipped under the radar. Lurking within the transcript lies a potent, almost counterintuitive, weapon that could be Domino's key to unlocking even greater growth: the resurgence of the carryout customer.
It's a trend that seemingly defies the prevailing narrative of the "age of delivery." Domino's, along with the broader QSR industry, has long championed the convenience of digital ordering and doorstep delivery as the future of fast food. Yet, while DPE proudly proclaims significant increases in delivery counts across its markets, a subtle shift is occurring – the "offline" carryout customer is making a comeback, particularly in the Australian and New Zealand (ANZ) markets.
Don Meij, DPE's CEO, acknowledged this phenomenon almost casually during the Q&A, noting that while delivery as a category has been shrinking in ANZ, Domino's has been accelerating against that shrinking tide. Meanwhile, pickup, particularly the "offline" variety (think: walk-in orders), has been growing, and Domino's has been lagging.
This seemingly contradicts the company's laser focus on digital dominance. But Meij's own words point to a strategic blind spot. He states, "The offline carry-out customer, it's quite a significant number to chase...pickup itself has actually been growing. And we've actually been shrinking against that because we haven't had as competitive [an] offering."
This admission is remarkable. Domino's, a company renowned for its digital prowess, has overlooked a growing segment of its potential customer base. The reason? They haven't tailored their offerings to attract this specific demographic. They've been so fixated on the "age of delivery" that they've neglected the customer who still values a quick, affordable, walk-in experience.
This oversight, however, presents a golden opportunity. DPE is now actively addressing this gap, launching a new $5 or less menu in ANZ specifically targeted at capturing this value-conscious consumer. The potential impact is enormous. Imagine a scenario where Domino's effectively activates this currently under-served market segment.
Let's consider some hypothetical numbers. Assuming the offline carryout segment represents 15% of the total pizza market in ANZ and Domino's currently captures only 25% of that segment, a targeted strategy that boosts their share to 40% could result in a significant sales uplift.
While these are hypothetical figures, they highlight the substantial untapped potential lurking within this overlooked segment. Furthermore, attracting these customers isn't merely about revenue growth; it's about maximizing store efficiency. These walk-in orders often require less complex logistics and marketing, potentially leading to higher profit margins compared to delivery orders.
This is where the strategy becomes truly ingenious. While DPE continues its relentless pursuit of delivery dominance, strategically re-engaging the offline carryout customer could be the secret weapon that pushes their growth into overdrive. It's a multi-pronged attack, capturing different segments of the market with tailored offerings.
Domino's has always been a company built on volume and efficiency. Now, they have a chance to leverage a seemingly counterintuitive trend to become an even more powerful force in the QSR landscape. The company that convinced the world to order pizza online may just rediscover the power of a simple walk-in order. And that could be the most delicious twist of all.
The chart below displays the same-store sales growth for ANZ and Japan, illustrating the contrasting performance of these two key markets for Domino's.
"Fun Fact: Domino's delivers over 3 million pizzas globally every day. That's enough pizza to stretch around the Earth's equator!"