May 13, 2024 - HUYA
Buried deep within HUYA's recent Q1 2024 earnings call is a single, almost innocuous sentence. It's a sentence most analysts will likely skim over, but it holds the key to understanding a potential explosion in HUYA's future profitability. This seemingly minor detail hints at a shift in their business model, a shift that could dramatically alter their revenue trajectory.
For those unfamiliar, HUYA is the leading game live streaming platform in China. They built their empire on a model similar to Twitch, connecting gamers with enthusiastic audiences. Viewers pay for subscriptions, virtual gifts, and other perks to support their favorite streamers. But as the Chinese gaming market matures, and competition intensifies, HUYA has been aggressively seeking new avenues for growth.
Enter "game-related services." This segment encompasses everything from game distribution and advertising to in-game item sales. HUYA acts as a powerful conduit between game developers and their target audience, leveraging its massive platform to promote new titles and facilitate in-game purchases.
The sentence that caught my eye, and should be sending shockwaves through the market, relates to how HUYA recognizes revenue in this game-related service segment.
"Here it is: "We typically recognize revenues from game distribution and in-game item sales **after revenue sharing with the game companies. That is on a net basis.**" - HUYA Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript"
What does this mean? It means the revenue figures HUYA reports for this segment are drastically understated. They are only showing their cut of the pie, *after* paying out a hefty chunk to the game developers.
Think about it. This means the actual transaction value flowing through HUYA's game-related services is significantly larger than what their official revenue numbers suggest. While HUYA reported 244 million RMB in Q1 revenue for this segment, the actual total transaction value could be double, triple, or even more.
Here's where it gets truly exciting. Game-related services tend to enjoy significantly higher gross margins than live streaming. This is because HUYA's primary cost in live streaming is revenue sharing with broadcasters. In game-related services, their cost structure is leaner, focused primarily on marketing and platform maintenance.
As game-related services account for an ever-larger slice of HUYA's revenue pie, their overall gross margin will inevitably improve. And given the rapid growth rate of this segment (137.6% year-over-year in Q1), this margin expansion could happen much faster than most analysts anticipate.
Let's do some back-of-the-envelope calculations. Assume, conservatively, that the total transaction value of HUYA's game-related services in Q1 was 500 million RMB. This would imply a gross margin of roughly 51%, far exceeding their current overall gross margin of 14.7%.
Now, imagine this segment continues its breakneck growth, reaching 1 billion RMB in transaction value by year-end. That would represent a sizable chunk of HUYA's total revenue. If we maintain that 51% gross margin estimate for game-related services, and assume a flat gross margin for live streaming, HUYA's overall gross margin could soar to over 25%.
This is a dramatic shift. It signifies a transition from a high-revenue, low-margin model to one that is far more profitable. It's a move that could propel HUYA into a new era of growth and shareholder value creation.
And here's the kicker: this transformation is still largely flying under the radar. Most analysts are focused on the year-over-year decline in HUYA's live streaming revenue, without fully grasping the implications of this game-related services explosion.
The opportunity for savvy investors is clear. HUYA is laying the groundwork for a significant margin expansion and revenue re-acceleration, driven by the explosive growth of a high-margin business segment. This is a story that is just beginning to unfold, and those who recognize its significance early stand to reap enormous rewards.
"Fun Fact: HUYA's name, derived from the Chinese word for "tiger's teeth," reflects their fierce commitment to innovation and dominance in the gaming space. They even have a tiger mascot named "Xiao Hu Ya," or "Little Tiger Teeth." This playful imagery belies the strategic brilliance and financial muscle that is driving HUYA's transformation."