May 9, 2024 - MUX

McEwen Mining: Gearing Up for a Golden Future?

The first quarter 2024 earnings call for McEwen Mining (NYSE:MUX) [NYSE:MUX] was abuzz with excitement. There was talk of production exceeding guidance, promising exploration results, and a dramatic political shift in Argentina that could unlock massive value for the company's Los Azules copper project. But buried within the details, a crucial piece of information was revealed that seems to have slipped past most analysts: McEwen Mining is gearing up for significant growth, and they believe now is the perfect time to strike.

While most eyes were on the impressive production numbers from Gold Bar and San Jose, and the potential windfall from the pro-investment policies of Argentina's new President, Javier Milei, CEO Rob McEwen dropped a bombshell. McEwen Mining isn't just focused on optimizing current operations, they're actively looking to acquire new assets. In fact, they're pursuing a multi-pronged growth strategy, suggesting a level of ambition not previously seen from the company.

McEwen Mining's Three-Pronged Growth Strategy

McEwen Mining is confident about growth now because McEwen believes market conditions are ripe for a significant bull run in gold, silver, and copper. He sees the current market as presenting a "rare opportunity" to acquire assets at attractive valuations, positioning the company for significant gains as metal prices rise. This bullish outlook is further bolstered by:

"Adding weight to McEwen's conviction is a tweet from none other than Elon Musk, who recently declared, "It's time to invest in Argentina." [Elon Musk's Tweet] While Musk's interests likely extend beyond copper mining, his endorsement of Argentina's investment climate underscores the transformative potential of President Milei's pro-business reforms, reforms that directly benefit McEwen Copper and its Los Azules project."

Financial Performance: A Deeper Look

While the recent earnings report shows a consolidated loss of $20.4 million or $0.41 per share, this figure is heavily influenced by the $18 million expensed for McEwen Copper's exploration activities in Argentina. This accounting treatment, mandated by U.S. GAAP, masks the strong performance of McEwen Mining's gold and silver operations, which generated a positive adjusted EBITDA of $6.3 million or $0.13 per share.

Moreover, McEwen Copper, now deconsolidated, boasts a healthy treasury of over $60 million, effectively hedging against Argentinian inflation and currency devaluation. This financial stability, coupled with the anticipated regulatory changes that could significantly reduce tax burdens and facilitate access to capital markets, positions McEwen Copper for a surge in value that would directly benefit McEwen Mining.

Charting the Future: Projected Adjusted EBITDA Growth

Based on McEwen Mining's positive outlook and growth strategy, the following chart illustrates hypothetical projected adjusted EBITDA growth for the next four quarters. This chart assumes continued strong performance in gold and silver operations and potential benefits from acquisitions and regulatory changes in Argentina.

Conclusion: A Golden Opportunity?

While analysts have focused on the accounting losses related to McEwen Copper, they seem to be overlooking the strategic brilliance of McEwen Mining's growth strategy. By capitalizing on undervalued assets in a pre-bull market environment, the company is poised to generate significant returns for its shareholders. And if they successfully execute a transformational acquisition, McEwen Mining could very well become a dominant force in the precious metals and copper sectors. Perhaps Elon Musk is on to something. Perhaps it's time for investors to take a closer look at McEwen Mining.

"Fun Fact: Los Azules, McEwen Mining's flagship copper project in Argentina, is located in the high Andes Mountains at an elevation of over 3,500 meters (11,500 feet). That's higher than many of the peaks in the Rocky Mountains!"