May 11, 2024 - MLR

Miller Industries: Is This Quiet Capacity Crunch the Key to Unlocking Explosive Shareholder Value?

Miller Industries, the undisputed king of towing and recovery equipment, just delivered a first quarter for the ages. Record revenues? Check. Year-over-year profitability gains? Check. A dividend increase and a shiny new share repurchase program? Double check. The market is buzzing, and rightfully so. But beneath the surface of these stellar results, a subtle yet potentially game-changing detail is hiding in plain sight: a capacity crunch.

Now, before you hit the panic button, this isn't your typical capacity crunch story of a company struggling to keep up with demand. This is different. This is Miller Industries, the company that defied the global slowdown of 2022 and doubled down on investment while others tightened their belts. This is the company with a backlog approaching a billion dollars, reflecting relentless demand for their iconic Century, Vulcan, and Holmes brands.

So, where's the crunch? It's in the nuanced language used during the Q1 2024 earnings call. Will Miller, the CEO, didn't just mention monitoring manufacturing capacity. He specifically highlighted it in the context of "assessing our future capital allocation plans" and "potential expansions or capital allocations in the future as we look past 2024." These aren't the words of a company comfortably coasting on its current capabilities. These are the pronouncements of a leadership team strategically navigating a high-class problem: figuring out how to squeeze even more juice from a machine already running at full throttle.

Delving into the Numbers

Q1 2024 saw a 23.9% revenue surge, reaching a record $349.9 million. While a good chunk of this is attributed to a catch-up in chassis deliveries from OEMs, Miller confidently projects high single-digit top-line growth for the full year, suggesting sustained organic demand. The backlog, a leading indicator of future sales, remains "consistently high quarter-to-quarter," further reinforcing the robustness of the underlying market.

But here's where it gets interesting. The company is simultaneously reporting a reduction in inventory levels, down to $184.3 million from $189.8 million at the end of 2023. This, coupled with the capacity commentary, implies that Miller is not just meeting current demand but potentially leaving some potential revenue on the table. They're walking a tightrope, deliberately managing inventory to optimize cash conversion while ensuring smooth operations. This cautious approach speaks volumes about the company's disciplined financial management.

The Capacity Crunch Hypothesis

This capacity constraint, if addressed strategically, could unlock even greater shareholder value. Think about it. If Miller Industries can intelligently increase capacity, they could capture even more of the seemingly insatiable demand for their products. This translates to potentially even higher revenues, enhanced profitability, and ultimately, a higher share price.

Revenue Growth: A Historical Perspective

To understand the potential impact of increased capacity, let's look at Miller Industries' historical revenue growth. The following chart compares revenue from Q1 2023 and Q1 2024.

The takeaway? Miller Industries is firing on all cylinders. But their quiet capacity crunch could be the spark that ignites the next stage of their growth trajectory. For astute investors, this seemingly minor detail might be the signal of an extraordinary opportunity on the horizon.

"Fun Fact: Did you know that Miller Industries has a long history of providing tow trucks to the U.S. military? They've even supplied equipment for disaster relief efforts around the world, solidifying their reputation as a trusted partner in critical situations."