March 27, 2024 - MLKN

MillerKnoll's Ghostly Whisper: Is a Furniture Renaissance Lurking in Their Balance Sheet?

Analysts are scratching their heads over MillerKnoll (MLKN), the furniture giant born from the merger of Herman Miller and Knoll. Recent performance has been underwhelming, with quarterly revenue growth dipping into negative territory (-0.114% YOY). The stock price hovers around $25, leaving investors wondering if the promised synergies of the merger will ever materialize. But what if we're all looking in the wrong place? What if the real story isn't in the revenue numbers, but hidden within the quiet depths of their balance sheet?

Let's dive into the fascinating world of furniture finance, where depreciation isn't just an accounting entry, but a potential indicator of a company's future prospects. MillerKnoll, with its rich heritage of iconic furniture designs, possesses a unique asset: its vast collection of molds and manufacturing rights for classic pieces. These molds, representing the "DNA" of timeless designs like the Eames Lounge Chair or the Barcelona Chair, don't depreciate in the traditional sense. Their value, tied to enduring design appeal, could be significantly understated on the balance sheet.

"Consider this: a new Eames Lounge Chair retails for over $7,000. These chairs, first designed in 1956, remain in high demand, a testament to their lasting appeal. MillerKnoll, with exclusive manufacturing rights, continues to produce these chairs, generating consistent revenue from a design over 60 years old. The molds used to create these iconic pieces, therefore, represent a long-term revenue-generating asset, potentially worth far more than their depreciated value."

This leads to a tantalizing hypothesis: could MillerKnoll's balance sheet be masking a hidden goldmine? Could their understated "mold assets" be a silent engine for future growth, especially as the demand for classic, high-quality furniture experiences a resurgence?

While the precise valuation of these molds is difficult to ascertain without access to internal data, we can still glean insights. MillerKnoll's gross profit margin for the trailing twelve months (TTM) stands at a healthy 36.6%. This suggests a strong pricing power, further bolstered by the enduring appeal of their classic designs.

Hypothetical Impact of "Mold Assets" on Gross Profit

Let's indulge in a thought experiment. Assuming even a conservative estimate that the molds for their most popular classic pieces could generate an additional $100 million in annual revenue with minimal additional production costs, this would translate to an approximate $36.6 million increase in gross profit, based on their current TTM gross margin.

This potential, however, is not reflected in analysts' current target price of $27.67. The market seems to be fixated on recent sluggish revenue growth, overlooking the potential of this "silent growth engine" humming away in the background.

Of course, this is just a preliminary exploration. A more rigorous analysis would require a detailed breakdown of their mold assets, their associated production costs, and market demand for their classic pieces. However, this initial investigation raises a compelling possibility: MillerKnoll may be sitting on a hidden treasure trove of "design DNA," waiting to be unlocked in a future marked by a renewed appreciation for timeless, high-quality furniture.

"Fun Facts about MillerKnoll:"

Did you know that the iconic Aeron Chair, a Herman Miller classic now under the MillerKnoll umbrella, is part of the permanent collection at the Museum of Modern Art?

MillerKnoll has a strong commitment to sustainability, with goals to achieve zero waste to landfill and carbon neutrality by 2030.

Perhaps the market is overlooking the potential of this "furniture legacy." The question now is, will MillerKnoll leverage their unique asset to its full potential? Only time, and perhaps a closer look at their "design DNA," will tell.