May 1, 2024 - OGE
OGE Energy, the Oklahoma-based energy provider, just held its Q1 2024 earnings call. Analysts gushed over the "enviable" 4.8% load growth and "robust" economic expansion in Oklahoma and Arkansas. But hidden within the optimistic pronouncements lies a deeper story, one that could redefine the company's future and potentially launch it into the same league as renewable energy juggernauts like Tesla.
What's this hidden gem? It's not the microgrid partnership with the Choctaw Nation, though that's certainly a positive step. It's not even the flurry of data center projects, despite their tantalizing potential. No, the secret weapon lies in OGE's *residential* load growth.
Yes, you read that right. **Residential.** The sector typically seen as the slowest-growing, the most predictable, the least exciting. Yet, OGE reported a 3.9% jump in residential load growth this quarter - the strongest expansion since the pandemic's peak. This wasn't a one-off blip either. It follows years of sustained residential load growth defying the industry's usual stagnation.
While analysts focus on the flashy commercial sector with its cryptocurrency miners and AI servers, they overlook the quiet revolution happening in Oklahoma homes. Could it be that OGE is successfully tapping into a surge in residential demand for electric vehicles?
Here's the hypothesis: OG&E's strategically low electricity rates, coupled with Oklahoma City's low cost of living (ranked 5th lowest in the nation by the Wall Street Journal) and the recent rise in gasoline prices, have created a perfect storm for EV adoption. Consumers, already enjoying affordable housing and energy, are further incentivized to switch to electric vehicles, driving up residential electricity demand.
Let's crunch some numbers. If we assume that the 2.86 percentage point difference between residential load growth (3.9%) and customer growth (1.1%) is entirely attributable to EV charging, and we use the average annual electricity consumption of an EV (3,000 kWh), we can estimate the number of new EVs added in Q1:
While this is a simplified calculation, it paints a compelling picture. If this trend continues, OGE could see over **100,000 new EVs** added to their service territory annually, dramatically boosting residential load growth and overall revenue.
This has profound implications. OGE wouldn't just be a utility; it would become a key player in the EV revolution. The company's focus on smart grid technology and distributed energy resources aligns perfectly with this shift, enabling it to manage the increased demand efficiently and cost-effectively.
The "North Star" that CEO Sean Trauschke repeatedly emphasizes – delivering safe, reliable, and affordable electricity – could very well guide OGE toward becoming a national leader in electric vehicle infrastructure, securing a bright and sustainable future for the company and its shareholders.
This is a story that's only beginning to unfold. While other analysts are busy chasing data centers, keep your eye on the seemingly mundane residential sector. It might just hold the key to OGE Energy's explosive growth and its transformation into the next Tesla.
"Fun Fact: Oklahoma City was ranked the 5th hottest job market in the U.S. by the Wall Street Journal, and 2nd best place for small businesses by Forbes! Could this economic boom be driving EV adoption and fueling OGE's residential load growth?"