The recent earnings call for Associated British Foods (ABF) painted a rosy picture: soaring profits, robust growth, and a return to stability after years of pandemic-induced turmoil. But buried beneath the jubilant pronouncements and talk of margin expansion lies a truly remarkable insight, a strategy that seems to have flown under the radar of every analyst. ABF is not simply combating shoplifting at Primark, its crown jewel retail chain; it's weaponizing it.

This may sound outlandish, but bear with me. Primark has long been known for its incredibly low prices, positioning itself as the undisputed champion of value in the fast-fashion arena. This commitment to rock-bottom prices has been a key driver of its success, attracting hordes of bargain-hungry shoppers. However, it has also made Primark a prime target for shoplifters, leading to what CEO George Weston acknowledged as 'higher than expected stock loss.'

While most retailers view shoplifting as a pure cost, a drain on profitability, ABF appears to have adopted a radically different perspective. Through its innovative digital strategy and, specifically, the rollout of its Click and Collect service, ABF is leveraging the inherent attraction of Primark, even for those with less-than-honest intentions.

The Strategy: Shoplifting as a Foot Traffic Driver

Here's how it works: the very act of shoplifting, while resulting in a loss of goods, drives foot traffic into Primark stores. This increased foot traffic, in turn, generates greater awareness of Primark's product range, particularly its new and expanded offerings like The Edit and the Rita Ora collaboration.

The brilliance of this strategy lies in its subtle interplay with Primark's digital initiatives. The website's stock checker, now utilized in 20% of online visits, actively encourages customers to visit physical stores to check product availability. This is further amplified by the Click and Collect service, which, while only offering a curated selection of Primark's range, acts as a powerful magnet, drawing shoppers into stores.

The data speaks for itself. Primark's Click and Collect trial revealed a surprising phenomenon: even for products already available in-store, adding them to the Click and Collect service demonstrably boosted sales. This suggests that the allure of Click and Collect extends beyond mere convenience; it creates an additional incentive for shoppers to physically enter Primark stores.

This is where the shoplifting element comes into play. The inherent draw of Primark's ultra-low prices, even for those prone to shoplifting, effectively increases the pool of potential Click and Collect customers. Every shoplifting incident, while representing a direct loss of goods, indirectly contributes to greater foot traffic and increased engagement with Primark's digital offerings.

Smaller Stores, Bigger Profits

This hypothesis is further supported by the remarkable success of Primark's smaller-format stores. The company is experimenting with 20,000 square foot stores in Spain and Portugal, finding them to be highly profitable. These smaller stores, by virtue of their reduced product range, are more reliant on digital engagement and Click and Collect to drive sales. Their success strongly suggests that ABF's strategy of driving foot traffic through various means, including the indirect effect of shoplifting, is paying off.

The Numbers: Margin Expansion Despite Stock Loss

Source: ABF Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

While ABF has not publicly quantified the precise financial impact of shoplifting, Eoin Tonge, the CFO, did reveal that gross margins are currently about 3 percentage points higher than pre-COVID levels, with a corresponding 3 percentage point increase in OpEx. This implies that Primark is absorbing the cost of shoplifting through increased efficiencies and operating leverage.

Sustainability and the Future

The crucial question is: how sustainable is this strategy? While the coordinated crackdown on organized retail crime may have a positive impact, the underlying economics of Primark's business model remain unchanged. The allure of ultra-low prices will continue to attract shoplifters, just as it attracts bargain hunters.

The long-term success of this strategy hinges on ABF's ability to continuously refine its digital engagement tools, optimizing the Click and Collect service and leveraging social media to maximize the conversion of foot traffic into sales.

The Power of the Primark Brand

"Fun Fact: During its Barbie collaboration, the demand for Primark's Barbie merchandise was so high that items were being resold on eBay for up to five times their original price. This demonstrates the immense power of Primark's brand, a power that ABF is skillfully harnessing, turning even the negative act of shoplifting into a driver of growth and profitability."