May 11, 2024 - QBCRF

Quebecor's Billion-Dollar Secret: Is a Media Comeback on the Horizon?

While analysts fixated on Quebecor's impressive wireless performance and its newly achieved investment-grade credit rating during the Q1 2024 earnings call, a subtle but potentially game-changing shift in the company's media segment seemed to slip under the radar. Could Quebecor, known for its bold moves in the telecom sector, be quietly orchestrating a media revival that could redefine the industry once again?

The media landscape, as Quebecor CEO <a href="https://www.quebecor.com/en/about-us/executive-team" alt="Pierre Karl Péladeau">Pierre Karl Péladeau</a> acknowledged, is a battlefield. Traditional broadcasters face dwindling advertising revenues, relentless competition from streaming giants, and a regulatory environment that feels more like an anchor than a lifeline. Group TVA, Quebecor's media arm, reported a negative EBITDA of $17 million for the quarter, a stark reminder of the challenges plaguing the sector.

But amidst the gloom, a flicker of hope emerged. Péladeau, with characteristic bluntness, described 2024 as a "transitional year" for Group TVA. The company, he revealed, is undergoing a major reorganization plan, announced in November 2023, to streamline its operations and refocus on its core strengths as Quebec's leading broadcaster.

While the cost-cutting aspect of this reorganization grabbed headlines – Quebecor announced the closure of two specialty channels and a reduction in its workforce – the strategic shift towards original Quebec content seems to have gone largely unnoticed.

Péladeau emphasized that despite the challenges, Group TVA would "continue to invest in original Quebec content," a statement that carries more weight when considering the company's track record. Quebecor has consistently championed local productions, and its flagship network, TVA, boasts the highest market share in Quebec, hovering around 41%. This commitment to local programming, combined with the company's undisputed leadership in news and sports broadcasting, suggests a potent recipe for a media comeback.

Here's where the hypothesis gets interesting. What if this reorganization isn't just about cost-cutting, but about laying the groundwork for a digital-first media strategy focused on capturing a global audience hungry for unique, high-quality content?

Let's consider the numbers. Despite the negative EBITDA, Quebecor's digital newspaper, magazine, and out-of-home businesses all saw improved profitability in Q1. This suggests that while traditional media is struggling, Quebecor's digital ventures are gaining traction.

"Furthermore, the company recently renewed labor agreements with its employees in Montreal, Quebec City, and the regions. This suggests stability and a shared commitment to navigating the changing media landscape."

Here's the potential billion-dollar secret: What if Quebecor is leveraging its cost-cutting measures to free up resources for aggressive investments in its digital platforms, building on its existing strength in original Quebec content to attract a global audience? The company could create a digital ecosystem encompassing its newspapers, magazines, and TVA's vast library of popular shows, positioning itself as a global provider of unique Quebec content.

This hypothesis gains further credence when considering the company's recent investment in acquiring 305 blocks of spectrum in the 3,800 MHz band for over $299 million. While this move bolsters Quebecor's 5G deployment, it also provides the infrastructure for delivering high-quality streaming content to a broader audience.

Quebecor's Wireless Subscriber Growth (Hypothetical)

This chart depicts a hypothetical projection of Quebecor's wireless subscriber growth, showcasing their potential to become a major player in the Canadian market.

If Quebecor can successfully execute this digital-first media strategy, it could unlock a billion-dollar opportunity, tapping into a global market for niche, high-quality content. The company's unwavering commitment to original Quebec programming, combined with its proven track record in digital media, could make it a formidable player in the global content arena.

"Fun Fact: Did you know that Quebecor was founded in 1965 by Pierre Péladeau [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pierre_P%C3%A9ladeau], Pierre Karl Péladeau's father? The company started as a small printing business and has grown into a media and telecom powerhouse, a testament to its entrepreneurial spirit and willingness to disrupt the status quo."