May 15, 2024 - RSKD

Riskified's Whisper: A Hidden Growth Engine Humming Beneath the Macroeconomic Noise

Riskified, the e-commerce fraud prevention specialist, delivered a solid first-quarter performance, surpassing analyst expectations on profitability while maintaining a steady revenue trajectory. But buried within the details of their earnings call transcript lies a clue that could signal a much more dynamic growth story unfolding: the quiet emergence of their multi-product platform.

While much of the discussion revolved around the continued softness in luxury fashion and the anticipated rebound in travel, Riskified's management team subtly revealed a powerful trend taking shape. Both their top new logo win and largest upsell in the quarter came from the tickets and live events sub-vertical, snatching business from newer generation competitors. This isn't just a one-off win; it's a pattern indicative of a strategic shift in how Riskified approaches the market.

Historically, Riskified has dominated the fashion and luxury vertical, building a formidable reputation and network effect through years of successful partnerships with prominent brands. Now, they're replicating that strategy in tickets and live events. As Eido Gal, Riskified's CEO, explained, they've identified the potential of this vertical years ago and have steadily cultivated a presence. The first quarter wins are simply the fruits of that long-term vision.

But what makes Riskified so confident in their ability to conquer this new domain? It goes beyond the network effect. Riskified prides itself on its deep integration with merchant systems, allowing them to analyze granular merchant-level data. This, combined with their sophisticated machine learning technology, gives them an edge over competitors who rely on more generic, less tailored approaches.

The emergence of this multi-product platform, encompassing Policy Protect, Dispute Resolve, and Account Secure, is a game-changer. These products, offering solutions beyond the core chargeback guarantee, are opening doors to new merchant segments and creating multiple entry points into enterprise e-commerce companies.

The significance of this shift cannot be understated. The first quarter saw seven of the top ten new chargeback guarantee logos closed outside of the US. This geographical diversification, coupled with the multi-product strategy, paints a picture of a company expanding its reach and resilience.

The numbers tell a compelling story. In Q1, Riskified achieved 11% revenue growth, 18% non-GAAP gross profit growth, a 1200 basis point improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin year-over-year, and repurchased approximately 4% of its outstanding shares. They're on track to deliver positive adjusted EBITDA for the full year, and their long-term targets for 2026 – adjusted EBITDA margins between 15% and 20%, including share-based compensation – are ambitious but achievable.

Key Hypothesis

Riskified's multi-product platform is a nascent growth engine that could significantly outperform analyst expectations. While the macro environment remains a concern, the company's commitment to technological innovation, geographical expansion, and operational efficiency positions it for success.

Supporting Data

Assuming a conservative 20% annual growth rate for their non-chargeback guarantee products, this segment could generate over $50 million in revenue by 2026.

Visualizing Growth: Revenue Projection

Riskified: A Force to Be Reckoned With

Riskified's story isn't just about weathering the macroeconomic storm; it's about building a powerful platform that can thrive in any environment. Investors who focus solely on the headline numbers may be missing the bigger picture – a company quietly laying the foundation for sustained, profitable growth. Remember the name: Riskified. You'll be hearing it a lot more in the years to come.

"Fun Fact: Riskified's machine learning models analyze billions of transactions annually, making them one of the most data-driven companies in the e-commerce space. They're essentially creating a global brain for fraud prevention!"