May 9, 2024 - FOUR
Shift4 Payments, the payments darling that can't quite seem to catch a break on Wall Street, just delivered another solid quarter. Packed with major wins, accelerated SkyTab growth, and the announcement of a synergy-rich acquisition, the company is clearly firing on all cylinders. But buried beneath the headline numbers and Jared Isaacman's characteristically blunt assessment of market sentiment, lies a revelation that may hold the key to finally unlocking a re-rating: Shift4's international expansion is not just progressing, it's exploding.
The transcript reveals a quiet confidence, almost bordering on nonchalance, about the strides being made beyond North American shores. While analysts were busy dissecting the back-half ramp in guidance, few seem to have grasped the magnitude of this international opportunity. It's not just a trickle of new clients, it's a wave. Leonardo Hotels, a European brand with hundreds of locations, chose Shift4. Pizza Hut's online ordering platform in Spain and Portugal is now powered by Shift4. Undisclosed collaborations for new restaurant concepts at EV charging locations hint at further momentum. Even Canada, with its billions in gateway volume previously untapped by Shift4, is now contributing.
What's fascinating is how understated this all is. Shift4 is, for the first time, *throttling demand* in Canada and Europe. They are choosing their spots strategically, ensuring software compatibility and fiscal compliance, meticulously laying the groundwork for a long-term, sustainable expansion. This is not a hasty grab for volume, it's a calculated play for market dominance.
Remember, Shift4's international expansion is built on a unique foundation: following a strategic e-commerce client, with whom they have an incredibly close relationship, into new territories. This provides an organic springboard for growth, allowing them to build a presence and leverage existing relationships before deploying their full arsenal of products and services. Think about it, they're not just entering a new market, they're entering with a built-in advantage.
Now, here's the hypothesis: Wall Street's fixation on short-term spread compression and the strategic review has blinded them to the long-term significance of this international push. If Shift4 can replicate even a fraction of its North American success in Europe and Canada, we're talking about a potential step-change in growth and profitability.
Shift4 aims to sign a significant number of new customers in 2024, both domestically and internationally.
Let's look at some numbers. Shift4's goal is to sign 10,000 new restaurant and hotel customers internationally this year. That's on top of the 30,000 SkyTab systems they aim to install domestically. If they achieve these targets, and even assuming a conservative average revenue per customer, the international contribution could be substantial.
Furthermore, the Revel acquisition, a strategic masterstroke, is perfectly timed to amplify this international momentum. Revel's existing sales team and network of partners, particularly in Europe, provide a ready-made distribution channel for SkyTab. The synergies are clear: lower customer acquisition cost, accelerated growth, and a deeper penetration of the highly-lucrative restaurant vertical.
Here's the kicker: Shift4 is presently valued at a fraction of its high-growth peers, despite boasting superior profitability and a far more diversified business. This disconnect is likely rooted in Wall Street's skepticism about the sustainability of their growth. However, the quiet, yet potent international expansion story, coupled with strategic acquisitions and the relentless SkyTab rollout, paints a picture of a company poised for a prolonged period of exceptional growth.
As Isaacman himself stated, "Those that continue to bet against us are going to quickly be running out of stories to tell." The international play may just be the final nail in the coffin for the bears. The question is, will Wall Street wake up to this reality before it's too late?
"Fun Fact: Shift4 powers the payments for iconic venues and events, including the Super Bowl and FC Barcelona's stadium, Spotify Camp Nou. This highlights the company's focus on securing high-profile clients and its ability to handle large-scale payment processing."