May 4, 2024 - THNPY

Technip Energies: The Silent Tsunami Building in the CCS Market

Technip Energies, the French engineering and technology giant, is quietly building a carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) empire. While analysts and investors are understandably focused on the company's successes in traditional markets like LNG, there's a seismic shift happening within Technip Energies' portfolio. A deeper dive into the company's Q1 2024 earnings transcript reveals a fascinating and potentially explosive narrative unfolding in the CCS space.

Technip Energies isn't just dipping its toes into CCS, it's diving headfirst. The company has strategically positioned itself as the go-to partner for large-scale carbon capture projects, demonstrating not only technological prowess but also the financial muscle and integration expertise needed to bring these complex projects to fruition.

The numbers are striking. Two massive CCS projects, Ruwais LNG in Abu Dhabi and Net-Zero Teesside in the U.K., are poised to become major revenue generators for Technip Energies. Ruwais, pending a final investment decision, is estimated to be worth over €1.5 billion to the company, while Net-Zero Teesside, a first-of-its-kind gas-fired power station with integrated carbon capture, could bring in well over €1 billion.

These are just the tip of the iceberg. Technip Energies' Canopy by T.EN carbon capture solution is rapidly gaining traction, racking up multiple awards for demo plants and feasibility studies across sectors like cement production, gas-fired power, and waste-to-energy. The company boasts a staggering 90+ projects in its CCS pipeline, a testament to its early commitment and strategic positioning.

What's particularly noteworthy is the company's emphasis on integration. Technip Energies is not just providing carbon capture technology, it's acting as a full-fledged technology integrator, bringing together various components, managing complex interfaces, and offering performance guarantees that instill confidence in its customers. This ability to integrate, to act as a one-stop-shop for large-scale CCS deployments, sets Technip Energies apart and positions it for future dominance.

Potential CCS Revenue Explosion

Let's consider the potential revenue implications of this CCS boom. If just two of the major projects in Technip Energies' pipeline reach FID in 2024, CCS revenue could easily surpass €1 billion in 2025. This is a remarkable figure, considering the nascency of the CCS market and the current size of Technip Energies' CCS business. The company is on a trajectory to transform its portfolio, making CCS a significant contributor to its top and bottom line in the very near future.

Adding fuel to the fire is the regulatory landscape, which is increasingly pushing for carbon emissions reductions. The recent U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announcement, mandating CCS implementation for existing coal and gas power plants, has injected a massive dose of momentum into the CCS market. Technip Energies, with its proven capabilities and robust pipeline, is poised to ride this wave, potentially securing a lion's share of this rapidly expanding market.

What's more, Technip Energies isn't just focusing on CCS, it's also actively developing innovative solutions in other low-carbon markets, including sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). The company's Hummingbird technology, which enables the production of SAF from ethanol, is gaining traction, particularly in the U.S. and the U.K., two markets with ambitious SAF mandates.

The strategic implications of this multi-pronged approach are significant. Technip Energies is not betting on a single horse, it's diversifying its low-carbon portfolio, creating multiple avenues for growth and enhancing its resilience to market fluctuations. The company is poised to become a leading player in the broader energy transition landscape, not just a niche CCS specialist.

What's fascinating is that this CCS revolution is unfolding under the radar. While investors are fixated on LNG and ethylene, Technip Energies is quietly amassing a formidable CCS portfolio, setting the stage for potentially explosive growth. This is not a story of incremental gains, it's a story of a silent tsunami building, ready to reshape the company's future and potentially redefine its position in the energy market.

Hypothetical Scenario: The Scale of the Opportunity

Assumption: Technip Energies secures contracts for 5 large-scale CCS projects (similar in size to Ruwais and Net-Zero Teesside) over the next 3 years.

Average contract value: €1.5 billion

Potential CCS revenue: €7.5 billion over the project lifecycles

This hypothetical scenario, while ambitious, highlights the sheer scale of the opportunity for Technip Energies in the CCS market. The company is poised to become a key player in a market that is estimated to be worth trillions of dollars in the coming decades. This silent tsunami is about to make a lot of noise.

"Fun Fact: The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that CCS will need to capture billions of tons of CO2 annually by 2050 to meet global climate goals, representing a colossal market opportunity for companies like Technip Energies."