March 11, 2024 - AVO

The Avocado Enigma: Mission Produce's Hidden Growth Engine That Wall Street is Missing

Mission Produce (AVO), the world's largest avocado distributor, is a company synonymous with the green gold that graces toast and guacamole bowls across the globe. Yet, despite its market dominance, AVO's stock performance has been lackluster, leaving investors scratching their heads and wondering if the avocado craze has peaked. However, a deep dive into the provided financial data reveals a tantalizing possibility: a hidden growth engine that Wall Street seems to be overlooking – blueberries.

While avocados are undoubtedly AVO's bread and butter, representing the bulk of their revenue, their blueberry segment is quietly gaining traction. Though specific revenue figures for blueberries aren't available in the data, we can infer its significance from two key data points:

AVO's financial reporting explicitly includes a "Blueberries" segment alongside "Marketing and Distribution" and "International Farming." This indicates that blueberries are a distinct and material part of their operations, worthy of separate disclosure. AVO's company description emphasizes their expansion beyond avocados, specifically mentioning mangoes and blueberries. This further highlights their strategic focus on diversifying their product portfolio.

Here's where it gets interesting. While AVO's overall quarterly revenue growth YOY was a decent 34.6%, this figure blends the performance of all three segments. What if the blueberry segment is experiencing a much higher growth rate, masked by the mature avocado business?

Hypothetical Growth Scenario

Let's hypothesize. Imagine the blueberry segment only represents 10% of AVO's total revenue. To achieve the overall 34.6% growth, with avocados experiencing, say, a 25% growth rate (still impressive given market saturation), the blueberry segment would need a staggering 125% growth rate. Even if blueberries account for a larger proportion, say 20% of revenue, their growth rate would still need to be an impressive 60% to achieve the reported overall growth.

This potential for explosive growth in the blueberry segment presents a compelling narrative that could redefine AVO's investment story. The global blueberry market is booming, driven by rising health consciousness and increasing demand for superfoods. AVO, with its established distribution network and market expertise, is ideally positioned to capitalize on this trend.

Furthermore, the blueberry market is less susceptible to the volatility and seasonality that plague avocados. This diversification could provide AVO with a more stable and predictable revenue stream, mitigating risk and enhancing investor confidence.

The Overlooked Opportunity

Of course, this is just a hypothesis based on limited data. However, it raises a crucial question: Is Wall Street properly valuing AVO's blueberry potential? The lack of specific blueberry revenue figures in the data might be obscuring this hidden gem from analysts' radar. If AVO's upcoming earnings call sheds light on the true performance of their blueberry segment, and it confirms the hypothesized high growth rate, expect a re-rating of the stock as investors wake up to this overlooked opportunity.

AVO could be on the verge of transforming from a simple "avocado play" to a diversified fresh produce powerhouse, with blueberries leading the charge. Those who recognize this potential early could reap substantial rewards. Remember, sometimes the most exciting growth stories are hidden in plain sight, waiting to be unearthed.

"Fun Fact: Blueberries are not actually berries! Botanically, they are classified as "false berries" because their structure develops differently than true berries like grapes or tomatoes."