May 20, 2022 - OXFCF

The Billion-Dollar Carbon Vacuum: Why Velocys' Latest Move Makes Them a Climate Change Powerhouse

Buried within Velocys plc's recent earnings call is a detail so significant, it could rewrite the narrative on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and catapult the company to the forefront of the fight against climate change. It's not their impressive partnerships with industry giants like British Airways and Southwest Airlines, nor their groundbreaking technology that transforms woodchips and waste into jet fuel. It's a single word, mentioned almost in passing, that holds the key to unlocking a billion-dollar opportunity: *sequestration*. Velocys isn't just making cleaner fuel; they're building a carbon vacuum. Their biorefineries are designed to capture and permanently store the CO2 generated during the fuel production process. This 'biogenic' CO2, derived from organic matter, represents a significant portion – roughly 30% to 40% – of the carbon locked within the feedstock. Instead of being released back into the atmosphere, this CO2 is channeled into geological formations, effectively removing it from the carbon cycle.

Here's why this is revolutionary: it flips the script on carbon accounting. Traditional SAF production, while significantly cleaner than fossil fuels, still results in carbon emissions. Velocys' approach, however, achieves what was once considered the holy grail of sustainability – *negative* carbon intensity. They are taking more CO2 out of the atmosphere than they are putting back in.

This 'carbon negative' status unlocks a cascade of financial and strategic advantages. Velocys becomes eligible for a whole new world of government incentives, including the lucrative 45Q federal tax credits in the U.S., which offer up to $85 per ton of captured CO2. Considering their projected output, this translates to a potential annual windfall of millions of dollars – all for doing what's good for the planet.

But the real game-changer lies in the burgeoning carbon offset market. Airlines, facing increasing pressure to reduce their carbon footprint, are desperate for ways to offset their emissions. Velocys, with its ability to generate independently verifiable carbon removals, becomes a highly attractive partner. Imagine a future where airlines don't just buy SAF from Velocys; they purchase carbon credits, directly offsetting their emissions with every gallon of fuel consumed. This creates a powerful financial incentive for airlines to switch to Velocys' SAF, further solidifying the company's position in the market.

And here's where the billion-dollar opportunity emerges. The World Economic Forum estimates that SAF will need to replace 6% to 7% of global oil demand to decarbonize aviation. Assuming even a conservative price of $50 per ton of CO2 sequestered, and factoring in Velocys' targeted market share of 5% to 10%, we're looking at a potential revenue stream of $1 billion to $2 billion annually from carbon sequestration alone.

While the technology behind Velocys' carbon capture system is not new, their ability to integrate it seamlessly into their biorefineries, creating a closed-loop system, is both innovative and financially compelling. This sets them apart from other SAF producers and positions them to capitalize on the growing demand for verifiable carbon removals. Velocys' commitment to carbon sequestration isn't just good environmental stewardship; it's a shrewd business strategy that could propel them to the forefront of the sustainable fuel revolution. Investors, take note: the company building a carbon vacuum might just be sitting on a gold mine.

This chart illustrates Velocys' potential annual revenue from carbon sequestration, based on different CO2 prices and market share scenarios.

"Fun Fact: The aviation industry contributes about 2.5% of global CO2 emissions. If global aviation were a country, it would be the sixth-largest emitter."