Take-Two Interactive, the gaming behemoth behind franchises like Grand Theft Auto and NBA 2K, just had their Q4 2024 earnings call. While analysts buzzed about the narrowed release window for the eagerly awaited GTA VI (now slated for Fall 2025), a different detail caught my eye, one that hints at a potentially seismic shift in Take-Two's strategy.

Strauss Zelnick, the company's ever-confident CEO, dropped a clue that suggests he's not just pinning Take-Two's future on GTA VI's success, but on a broader resurgence of the console market. When pressed on how Take-Two could possibly deliver *sequential* revenue growth in fiscal year 2027, even after the massive launch of GTA VI in 2026, Zelnick pointed to "IDG's projections, which are pretty substantial."

Now, those projections are indeed eye-popping. IDG forecasts the global Gen 9 console install base to skyrocket from 81 million at the end of 2023 to a whopping 175 million by the end of 2027. Zelnick, in his signature assured tone, stated "We do expect a very significant attach rate" for GTA VI on these new consoles.

Could Zelnick be hinting at something even bigger than a blockbuster game launch? Is he betting on a console renaissance, fueled by the power and allure of next-generation hardware and the return of "lapsed gamers" drawn back by the gravitational pull of GTA VI?

This isn't just wishful thinking. We're already seeing hints of this resurgence. Take-Two revealed that engagement with GTA V, a game released over a decade ago, surged 35% in the past fiscal year. GTA Online, the game's persistent online world, saw a 23% bump. These numbers are remarkable for a game that, in the fast-paced world of gaming, should be considered ancient. They suggest a deep-seated appetite for console gaming experiences, an appetite that could be supercharged by a new GTA installment designed specifically for the latest hardware.

Remember, we're not talking about a small indie studio here. Take-Two is a seasoned player, known for their shrewd business acumen. They understand the market, and they're not prone to flights of fancy. When Zelnick talks about sequential growth in 2027, he's basing it on concrete projections and a calculated bet on the future of console gaming.

Let's do some back-of-the-envelope math. Take-Two's net bookings in fiscal year 2024 were $5.33 billion. For fiscal year 2025, they're projecting between $5.55 billion and $5.65 billion. To achieve sequential growth in 2027, they'd need to surpass these numbers *even after* the likely colossal impact of GTA VI in 2026. If IDG's console projections are even remotely accurate, and if GTA VI achieves a significant attach rate, a scenario where a large portion of those new console owners also purchase GTA VI, the game's sales alone could easily propel Take-Two past their 2026 numbers.

But Zelnick didn't just mention GTA VI. He highlighted the "numerous other powerful releases" in their pipeline, both announced and unannounced. These upcoming games, combined with the expected growth of their mobile business, which includes recent hits like Match Factory!, create a multi-pronged growth strategy that goes beyond a single franchise.

Projected Gen 9 Console Install Base Growth

The chart below visualizes IDG's projections for the growth of the Gen 9 console install base, highlighting the potential market expansion Take-Two is banking on.

It's a bold bet, no doubt, but one that could pay off handsomely. If Zelnick's console renaissance prediction comes to fruition, Take-Two could be looking at a future of unprecedented growth, leaving their competitors scrambling to catch up.

"Fun Fact: Did you know that Take-Two initially rejected the pitch for Grand Theft Auto? It was only after DMA Design, the original developer, was acquired by BMG Interactive, a subsidiary of Take-Two, that the game got the green light."