May 7, 2024 - USAC

The Caterpillar Conundrum: Is USA Compression Sitting on a Gold Mine (and Ignoring It)?

USA Compression Partners just delivered another quarter of record-breaking results. Revenue is soaring, utilization is at an all-time high, and they're confidently navigating the choppy waters of economic uncertainty. But beneath the surface of this success story, a fascinating narrative is unfolding, one that might be flying under the radar of most analysts. USA Compression may be sitting on a potential gold mine, an opportunity linked to a critical piece of their business: Caterpillar engines.

The transcript reveals a compelling dynamic. While USA Compression is strategically pulling back on new unit growth due to high equipment costs and market uncertainty, they're keenly aware of the tightening supply chain for Caterpillar 3600 series engines. These engines are the powerhouse of their large horsepower compression units, and lead times are stretching to almost a year. This, in itself, isn't new information. What's intriguing, however, is CEO Eric Long's astute observation about a new competitor entering the fray: data centers.

Long highlights the escalating demand for Cat 3600 series engines for backup power generation in data centers, particularly those expanding into AI. Tech giants like Amazon, Google, Facebook, and Microsoft are pouring billions into AI infrastructure, and each of these data centers requires massive backup power, often fueled by Cat engines. This creates a fascinating scenario where USA Compression, an energy infrastructure player, is indirectly competing with the titans of the tech world for the same critical resource.

This is where the potential gold mine comes into play. USA Compression owns a substantial fleet of compression units, many powered by these highly sought-after Cat engines. While they're currently focused on optimizing their existing fleet and deploying idle units, they also have the option to capitalize on the surging demand for Cat engines.

Hypothetical Scenario: Unrealized Asset Appreciation

Let's crunch some numbers to illustrate this hypothesis. Assume USA Compression has 1,000 large horsepower units powered by Cat 3600 series engines. If the market value of these engines, driven by data center demand, has increased by 50% (a conservative estimate given the year-long lead times), USA Compression effectively holds an unrealized asset appreciation of significant value.

Now, it's unlikely USA Compression would sell off their engines en masse. They're critical to their core compression business. However, this dynamic presents several strategic options:

The transcript suggests that USA Compression's management is laser-focused on financial prudence and navigating short-term uncertainty. This is undeniably a wise approach. However, by overlooking the potential embedded in their existing fleet of Cat engines, they might be missing an opportunity to unlock significant value, value that could accelerate their deleveraging goals and potentially even lead to more aggressive distribution increases.

The Caterpillar conundrum, as it stands, is a fascinating subplot in USA Compression's success story. Will they recognize and capitalize on this potential gold mine? Only time will tell. But one thing is certain: the strategic choices they make regarding their Cat engines will have a profound impact on their future trajectory.

Visualizing USA Compression's Engine Utilization

The following chart illustrates a hypothetical utilization trend for USA Compression's large horsepower units, emphasizing the high demand for their Cat 3600 series engines.

"Fun Fact: Caterpillar's 3600 series engines are so powerful that a single unit can generate enough electricity to power over 1,000 homes! This highlights the immense energy demands of data centers and the critical role these engines play in ensuring continuous operation."