May 8, 2024 - AMC

The Donut Hole Prophecy: Is AMC Secretly Baking Its Way to Billions?

AMC Entertainment, the movie theater giant that defied gravity during the pandemic, has once again surprised Wall Street. But beneath the headlines of box office rebounds and concert film triumphs, a quiet revolution is brewing in the concession stands. And it smells like warm icing and incremental dollars.

While analysts dissect film slates and debt maturities, a deeper dive into AMC's <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMC" alt="AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.">Q1 2024 earnings transcript</a> reveals a fascinating trend: the company's laser focus on food and beverage innovation. This isn't just about adding a few new menu items. This is a strategic shift, a commitment to transforming the moviegoing experience into a culinary adventure, and potentially a goldmine for AMC.

Consider this: AMC's "contribution margin per patron" - the revenue left over after paying for films and food costs - soared a staggering 44% above pre-pandemic levels. This surge in profitability per moviegoer is directly linked to their insatiable appetite for AMC's innovative food and beverage offerings.

"Adam Aron, AMC's outspoken CEO, dropped a revealing hint during the earnings call: "These things might look like donut holes to our guests, but to us, they look like incremental dollars. We expect to sell a lot." [Source: Q1 2024 Earnings Transcript [https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMC]]"

He's referring to the newly introduced "Baker's Dozen" shareable donut holes, available in three tantalizing flavors - cinnamon sugar, strawberry, and a proprietary peanut butter blend created in partnership with PB2.

This isn't a random menu addition. It's a calculated move, exploiting the irresistible allure of warm, freshly baked treats. And it's only the tip of the iceberg.

AMC's culinary team is relentlessly experimenting with new flavors and formats, from artisan pizzas and gourmet chicken sandwiches to decadent milkshakes and even the introduction of alcohol sales in New York theaters. This strategy isn't simply about selling more food. It's about elevating the entire concession stand experience, enticing moviegoers to indulge in premium offerings, and driving those precious "incremental dollars" straight to AMC's bottom line.

The Donut Hole Prophecy

But here's where the "Donut Hole Prophecy" gets really interesting.

Let's hypothesize: If AMC can increase their domestic food and beverage spend per patron by just $1 - a conservative estimate considering their current momentum - they would generate an additional **$240 million in annual revenue**. Remember that 82% margin on F&B sales? That translates to nearly **$200 million in pure profit, flowing directly to adjusted EBITDA**.

Now imagine the impact of a $2 increase, or even a $3 increase, driven by a consistent stream of innovative, high-margin offerings. The numbers start to get truly mind-blowing.

This isn't just wishful thinking. AMC is already outselling its competitors in the food and beverage arena. They're investing heavily in their culinary team, constantly testing new ideas, and leveraging their massive scale to secure favorable pricing and distribution deals.

AMC's Contribution Margin per Patron

The following chart illustrates AMC's remarkable growth in contribution margin per patron, highlighting the effectiveness of their food and beverage strategy. The data is based on pre-pandemic levels and the latest figures reported in the Q1 2024 earnings call.

AMC's Revenue Diversification

In addition to its food and beverage strategy, AMC is actively pursuing revenue diversification through various initiatives. This table summarizes some of their key endeavors:

Reference: <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMC" alt="AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.">Q1 2024 and Q4 2023 Earnings Transcripts</a>

This quiet revolution in the concession stand may be the most overlooked story in AMC's Q1 earnings. While the world waits for the box office to fully recover, AMC is quietly baking its way to a potential fortune. And the "Donut Hole Prophecy" suggests that their journey to billions might be sweeter than anyone imagined.

"**Fun Fact:** The average moviegoer spends around $5 on concessions. If every AMC patron bought just one "Baker's Dozen" donut hole order (priced at $5.99), it would represent a significant increase in revenue and profit for the company."