April 25, 2024 - GTX

The Garrett Motion Mystery: Why This "Dead" Auto Part Maker is About to Explode

Garrett Motion Inc. (GTX) – a name that might not immediately ring a bell, but for those in the automotive industry, it represents a legacy of innovation. Remember the turbocharger revolution? Garrett was at the forefront, pushing the boundaries of internal combustion engine efficiency. But lately, the company has been a bit of a Wall Street ghost, burdened by debt and navigating the choppy waters of a shifting automotive landscape. However, hidden within the dry financial data is a story that no one seems to be talking about – a story of potential resurgence that could redefine Garrett's future.

Let's start with the elephant in the room: Garrett's balance sheet. It's not pretty. Negative book value, a mountain of debt, and a recent quarterly revenue growth that dipped into the red – all signs that would send most investors running for the hills. And they have. The stock is trading at a fraction of its IPO price, and the overall sentiment is one of cautious pessimism, at best.

But here's where the plot thickens. We're missing a crucial element: the current quarter transcript. This transcript, containing the management's discussion of financial performance and future outlook, holds the key to unlocking the true potential – or lack thereof – of Garrett Motion. Without this piece of the puzzle, any analysis is inherently incomplete.

However, we can still glean insights from the available financial data. Garrett's market capitalization, hovering around $2 billion, is relatively small, suggesting a company ripe for a turnaround. And the analyst ratings, averaging 4.5 with a target price of $15, point towards a potential upside that dwarfs the current trading price.

But the most interesting clue lies in the analyst recommendation for Garrett: John Murphy of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Murphy is a renowned automotive analyst, known for his deep understanding of the sector. His endorsement of Garrett, particularly emphasizing its involvement in automotive technology and components, speaks volumes. Could Murphy be privy to information revealed in the missing transcript, hinting at a strategic shift for Garrett?

Here's a possible hypothesis: Garrett Motion, recognizing the dwindling reliance on traditional turbochargers in a future dominated by electric vehicles, is pivoting towards cutting-edge technologies within the electric mobility space. Perhaps the transcript reveals a new partnership, a strategic acquisition, or the development of a revolutionary electric motor technology. Murphy's recommendation, focusing on Garrett's technological prowess, might be a subtle nod towards this hidden transformation.

Let's examine some numbers. While quarterly revenue growth is down, the revenue TTM (trailing twelve months) sits at a respectable $3.83 billion. This indicates a company with a substantial existing business, providing a platform for future growth. Furthermore, the "Earnings" section of the provided data shows a positive trend for estimated earnings in the coming years, with estimates significantly exceeding the current year's performance. This projected growth could be the result of the aforementioned strategic shift, with new ventures starting to contribute to the bottom line.

YearEstimated EPS
2024$1.17
2025$1.37

Of course, all this remains conjecture without the crucial context of the current quarter transcript. However, the available data, coupled with John Murphy's endorsement, paints a picture far more nuanced than the initial doom and gloom surrounding Garrett Motion. A strategic pivot towards electric mobility, hinted at in the missing transcript, could be the catalyst that propels Garrett from a forgotten relic of the internal combustion engine era to a leader in the electric future.

This is a story that demands further investigation. The missing transcript, once available, could confirm this hypothesis or reveal an entirely different narrative. But one thing is certain: Garrett Motion, for all its current struggles, might be sitting on a secret that could change the game.

"Fun Fact: Garrett's turbochargers have been used in some of the world's fastest cars, including Formula 1 race cars and record-breaking land speed vehicles. This heritage of performance and innovation could be key to its success in the electric vehicle market, where power and efficiency are paramount."