July 31, 2021 - CGUIF

The Ghost of Casino Guichard: Why This "Dead" Stock Holds a $1.6 Billion Secret

Casino Guichard-Perrachon. The name might not ring a bell for many, especially considering the ticker CGUIF vanished from the PINK exchange back in 2017. Yet, this seemingly forgotten entity boasts a market capitalization of $1.6 billion. How can a delisted company, described as a "dead" stock by some, retain such a hefty valuation? The answer lies buried within the company's financials, a story missed by most analysts, but one that whispers of potential resurrection.

The obvious place to start is the company's self-reported "Market Capitalization" in their Highlights data. A mere $15.6 million. A far cry from the $1.6 billion figure we're grappling with. This discrepancy alone is enough to raise eyebrows. Is this a simple error, a relic of outdated information, or something more intriguing?

A deeper dive into the financial data reveals a crucial piece of the puzzle: "Shares Outstanding." While the "Shares Float" is a minuscule 378,314, the total "Shares Outstanding" stands at a staggering 395,724,000. If we apply the current market cap of $1.6 billion to this number of shares, we arrive at a per-share value of roughly $4. This seemingly insignificant figure is where the phantom's heartbeat becomes detectable.

Casino Guichard, despite its delisting, hasn't ceased operations. It continues to function as a subsidiary of Rallye SA, a French retail conglomerate. Looking at its "RevenueTTM" of $9 billion, "Gross ProfitTTM" of $7.9 billion, and even a positive "EBITDA" of $668 million, we see a company far from lifeless. This is no empty shell; it's a substantial business quietly generating revenue under the radar.

Financial Health: A Closer Look

To understand the financial situation of Casino Guichard, let's examine some key figures:

MetricValue
Market Capitalization$1.6 billion
Shares Outstanding395,724,000
Revenue (TTM)$9 billion
Gross Profit (TTM)$7.9 billion
EBITDA (TTM)$668 million
Short Long Term Debt Total$9.1 billion
Net Debt$8.1 billion

Source: Company Financials

But the spectral nature of Casino Guichard deepens when we examine its debt. With "Short Long Term Debt Total" reaching $9.1 billion and a "Net Debt" of $8.1 billion, the company is heavily leveraged. This explains its delisting and the cautious label of "dead stock." However, the story takes an unexpected turn with the "Last Split Factor" of "1:100" occurring on June 14, 2024.

This recent stock split is a potent signal, a spectral whisper amplified into a shout. Why would a company burdened by debt and operating in relative obscurity execute a 1:100 stock split? It suggests an anticipation of increased trading activity, perhaps a move towards re-listing, a gamble on a brighter future.

The Comeback Hypothesis

The hypothesis emerges: Casino Guichard is positioning itself for a comeback. The split makes the stock more accessible to a wider range of investors. If the company can successfully navigate its debt burden, which the positive EBITDA suggests is a possibility, the current $4 per share valuation could be a significant undervaluation.

Think of it this way. Casino Guichard is like a grand, historic casino, shrouded in dust covers, lights dimmed. The roulette wheel, however, still spins. Cards are dealt at the poker table. While the grand entrance remains closed, a side door creaks open, inviting those who dare to venture in. The 1:100 split is that creaking door.

Revenue vs. Debt: Can Casino Guichard Turn the Tide?

The following chart illustrates Casino Guichard's revenue and debt over the past four years. While the company generates substantial revenue, it faces a significant debt challenge.

Source: Company Financials

"Fun Fact: Casino Guichard was founded in 1898, making it over 125 years old. It survived two World Wars, economic depressions, and countless market fluctuations. Could this ghostly giant be on the verge of another dramatic comeback, a resurrection from the graveyard of delisted stocks?"

The numbers hint at a compelling story, one that most analysts have overlooked. The $1.6 billion market cap, the recent split, the ongoing operations, all suggest a hidden potential. It's a high-risk play, undoubtedly, but for those willing to bet on a ghost, the reward could be substantial. Remember, fortunes are often made where others fear to tread.