May 4, 2024 - JBT
Buried deep within JBT Corporation's recent Q1 2024 earnings call transcript (Source: Seeking Alpha) lies a subtle clue, a whisper in the wind that could signal a significant shift in the company's future – a shift that most analysts seem to have overlooked. While all eyes are on the impending Marel merger and its tantalizing cost synergies, JBT may be sitting on a revenue synergy goldmine that could dwarf even the most optimistic projections.
The key lies in Brian Deck's (CEO of JBT Corporation) seemingly innocuous comments about the North American poultry market recovery. Yes, everyone knows poultry is coming back. Analysts have meticulously factored in the impact of rising wholesale poultry prices and stable corn input costs. They've noted the "upbeat mood" at the IPPE poultry show and the "constructive conversations" that JBT had with customers. But are they truly grasping the magnitude of the potential upswing?
Deck reveals a startling detail: North American poultry equipment orders were down *more than 20%* in 2023 compared to a normalized mid-cycle year. He anticipates a "halfway recovery" in the back half of 2024, implying a potential surge of over 10% in just six months. This projection aligns with the anticipated full recovery in 2025. But here's where things get truly interesting – and potentially explosive for JBT.
Consider this: JBT's North American poultry equipment business represents roughly 25% of their total revenue. A 10% surge in the back half of 2024 would translate to a **$41.6 million revenue bump** (based on the midpoint of their 2024 revenue guidance). Now, factor in the Marel merger. Marel, a global leader in poultry processing, boasts a substantial footprint in North America. Combining their sales force and customer relationships with JBT's surging poultry business could create a potent cocktail for accelerated revenue growth.
While JBT has cautiously stated that they expect "substantial revenue synergies," they haven't quantified those synergies yet. But imagine this: if the combined JBT Marel entity could capture just **half** of the potential market share growth from this poultry rebound, we're talking about an additional **$20.8 million in revenue** for the back half of 2024 alone. Extrapolate that over a full year, and the potential jumps to **over $40 million** in incremental revenue, directly attributable to this overlooked synergy.
Now, let's get to the billion-dollar question. What does this all mean for JBT Marel's valuation? Assuming a conservative price-to-sales multiple of 2 (in line with JBT's current valuation), this overlooked revenue synergy could add **over $80 million** to the combined company's market capitalization. And that's just from the North American poultry recovery.
The potential for additional revenue synergies from cross-selling, expanded service offerings, and a global commercial footprint adds further fuel to the fire. It's not unreasonable to hypothesize that the combined JBT Marel could generate hundreds of millions in extra revenue over the next few years, translating to a billion-dollar valuation boost.
Analysts are fixated on cost synergies, but the hidden clue in JBT's transcript points to a revenue synergy narrative that's far more compelling. JBT Marel could become a dominant force in the global food processing market, riding the wave of a resurgent poultry industry and unlocking value on a scale that few have anticipated.
The following chart illustrates the potential revenue bump JBT could experience from the poultry market recovery, both independently and in combination with Marel (assuming a 50% capture of market share growth).
"Fun Fact: JBT's history dates back to 1884 when John Bean invented the first successful piston pump for spraying insecticide on fruit trees. Talk about a long-term growth story! (Source: JBT Corporation)"