The latest earnings call from Y-mAbs Therapeutics painted a picture of solid performance, particularly for their flagship product DANYELZA. Record US sales, a robust pipeline, and the promise of their SADA PRIT platform all contributed to the positive tone. But beneath the surface, a critical detail emerged, one that seems to have slipped past even the keenest analysts' eyes: a potential surge in DANYELZA demand is brewing, fueled by an unexpected source.

While the US market, currently accounting for 80% of DANYELZA sales, is undoubtedly driving growth, international markets are exhibiting a quiet but potentially explosive trend. The transcript revealed that international revenue decreased year-over-year primarily due to a large initial inventory stocking order from their European partner in Q1 2023. This one-time bulk purchase artificially inflated the 2023 numbers, making the year-over-year comparison appear less impressive than it truly is.

Here's where the intrigue lies: despite the seemingly lackluster international year-over-year revenue performance, Y-mAbs executives expressed confidence in their full-year 2024 revenue guidance. This implies that they foresee a significant rebound in international sales, strong enough to offset the impact of that 2023 bulk order.

What's driving this anticipated resurgence? The answer might be hiding in plain sight. Two key developments point to a potential DANYELZA demand boom in international markets: the successful launch in China through their partner Cyclone and the impending launch in Brazil and Mexico with Adium.

China, with its vast population and a growing focus on advanced medical treatments, represents a substantial opportunity for DANYELZA. The positive feedback and physician uptake reported by Y-mAbs indicate that DANYELZA is gaining traction in this key market.

Furthermore, the upcoming launch in Brazil and Mexico adds fuel to the fire. Latin America has a significant unmet need for effective neuroblastoma treatments, and DANYELZA's approval by the Brazilian regulatory authority signals a readiness for the drug in the region.

DANYELZA Sales Projections

Let's crunch some numbers. Y-mAbs reported $84.3 million in DANYELZA net product sales for 2023. Their 2024 guidance is between $95 million and $100 million, implying an increase of 13% to 19%. With the US market expected to remain the primary driver, let's conservatively assume a 10% growth in US DANYELZA sales, which would translate to roughly $8.5 million in additional revenue.

These figures suggest that Y-mAbs anticipates a substantial increase in international DANYELZA demand, potentially in the range of 10% to 40%. This growth will likely be fueled by the continued success in China and the launch in new Latin American markets.

Visualizing DANYELZA Sales Growth

The chart below illustrates potential DANYELZA sales growth scenarios, based on the analysis above.

While analysts seem focused on the US market, the hidden engine of international growth is quietly revving up. If Y-mAbs' projections materialize, this unassuming force could propel DANYELZA sales far beyond expectations, turning a solid performer into a veritable goldmine.

"Fun Fact: Did you know that Y-mAbs was founded by Thomas Gad, a serial entrepreneur with a passion for developing life-saving treatments? He's not just a businessman, he's also a medical doctor who understands the profound impact that innovative therapies can have on patients and families."