May 30, 2024 - ESTC

The Hidden Gem in Elastic's Earnings: Why Wall Street is Missing the Quiet Revolution in CPU-Powered GenAI

Elastic just delivered another earnings beat, sending their stock soaring. Cloud revenue surged, exceeding expectations. Analysts are buzzing about their traction in generative AI, but they’re focusing on the wrong thing. While everyone's distracted by the shiny new toys of GPUs and hyperscaler partnerships, Elastic is quietly executing a CPU-powered GenAI revolution that could redefine the landscape and dramatically expand their market.

The evidence is right there in plain sight, woven into the fabric of Ash Kulkarni’s words during the Q4 earnings call. He casually drops a bombshell: Elastic doesn't need GPUs to power their Retrieval Augmented Generation (RAG) functionality. Their CPU-based implementation, optimized for readily available cloud instance types, delivers exceptional performance and scalability, rivaling GPU-powered solutions at a fraction of the cost.

This seemingly innocuous statement is a seismic shift. The prevailing narrative surrounding GenAI has been inextricably linked to the raw horsepower of GPUs. Companies have been scrambling to secure access to these expensive resources, driving up demand and creating a bottleneck in the market. Meanwhile, Elastic has quietly built a robust, cost-effective GenAI platform that leverages the ubiquitous power of CPUs.

This strategy positions Elastic to become the GenAI platform of choice for a vast swathe of organizations that have been priced out of the GPU arms race. Think about it: smaller businesses, government agencies, even cost-conscious departments within larger enterprises. They can now access the transformative power of GenAI without breaking the bank or waiting in line for scarce GPU resources.

The implications are staggering. Elastic's total addressable market (TAM) expands exponentially. Instead of being confined to the elite club of GPU-equipped organizations, they can now target the massive market of CPU-driven enterprises. This could fuel a period of explosive growth, far surpassing Wall Street’s current projections.

Advantages of Elastic's CPU-Centric Approach

Cost Efficiency: Running on CPUs significantly reduces the cost of deploying and operating GenAI applications. This makes Elastic's platform highly attractive to organizations seeking to maximize their ROI. Accessibility: CPUs are readily available in all major cloud environments, eliminating the need to compete for scarce GPU resources. This enables faster deployment and scaling of GenAI applications. Sustainability: CPUs are more energy-efficient than GPUs, aligning with the growing focus on environmental sustainability in technology.

Elastic's GenAI Adoption and Revenue Growth

Let's look at the numbers. Elastic reported over 1,000 paying customers using their vector database and RAG capabilities. While they haven't broken down revenue contribution by technology, their 20% overall revenue growth and 32% cloud revenue growth suggest healthy adoption. Assuming even a conservative 10% of their GenAI customers are leveraging CPU-based RAG, and that this segment is growing at a faster rate than their overall cloud business (say, 40%), we can hypothesize a potential multi-million dollar revenue stream from this under-the-radar segment.

As awareness of Elastic's CPU-powered GenAI capabilities grows, this nascent revenue stream could rapidly swell into a tidal wave. Early adopters, like Stack Overflow and Consensus, are already reaping the benefits of Elastic's innovative approach. Their success stories will serve as a powerful catalyst for broader adoption.

Wall Street may be fixated on the GPU narrative, but Elastic is playing a different game. They’re betting on the power of CPUs, the cost-conscious enterprise, and a quiet revolution that could redefine the future of GenAI. Don't be surprised if their next earnings call reveals numbers that blow the doors off Wall Street’s expectations. The CPU-powered GenAI revolution is here, and Elastic is leading the charge.

"Fun Fact: Elastic's CEO, Ash Kulkarni, holds a Ph.D. in Computer Science from Stanford University, specializing in parallel computing. His deep technical expertise, combined with his strategic vision, is driving Elastic's innovative approach to GenAI."