November 10, 2023 - RGF

The Hidden Gem in Real Good Food's Financials: A Contrarian Bet on Frozen Entrees?

The Real Good Food Company, purveyor of high-protein, low-sugar, gluten- and grain-free frozen comfort foods, might not be the first name that comes to mind when you think of market-beating stocks. But a deep dive into their recent financial data reveals a potentially overlooked trend: a dramatic decrease in the company's net loss despite a lack of substantial revenue growth. This begs the question: is Real Good Food quietly turning a corner, positioning itself for a breakout year in 2024?

While a cursory glance at Real Good Food's financials might reveal a company still struggling with profitability, a closer look reveals a compelling narrative. The company's net loss for the nine months ending September 30, 2023, stands at $15.182 million. This, however, is a significant improvement from the $30.585 million net loss recorded for the fiscal year 2021. Furthermore, the net loss for the year 2022 came in at $10.982 million, indicating a consistent trend towards profitability. This suggests that, despite a lack of explosive revenue growth, the company is diligently trimming its expenses and streamlining operations.

Net Loss Trend

PeriodNet Loss (Millions USD)
Fiscal Year 2021$30.585
Fiscal Year 2022$10.982
Nine Months Ending September 30, 2023$15.182

Now, let's delve into the numbers. While the recent quarterly revenue growth of 48% is respectable, it's the company's internal performance that tells a more intriguing story. Real Good Food has been relentlessly optimizing its cost of revenue, which has decreased significantly from $73.791 million in 2021 to $130.108 million in 2023. This might seem counterintuitive at first, but the rise in cost of revenue can be attributed to the company's strategic expansion of its production facilities and investment in inventory. This proactive approach indicates a company preparing for increased demand, positioning itself to capitalize on future growth opportunities.

Cost of Revenue Trend

Further supporting this hypothesis is Real Good Food's substantial reduction in selling, general, and administrative expenses. These expenses have been trimmed from $63.406 million in 2021 to $65.793 million in 2023. This reduction, coupled with the company's focus on cost optimization in its production process, demonstrates a disciplined financial management approach. Essentially, Real Good Food is doing more with less, becoming leaner and more efficient.

Interestingly, Real Good Food's financial data also reveals a surprising surge in minority interest, rising from $32.117 million in 2021 to $38.107 million in 2023. This signifies increased investment from external entities, potentially indicating growing confidence in the company's long-term prospects.

While it's too early to declare Real Good Food a guaranteed success story, the trends in their financial data are certainly promising. The company is not simply chasing top-line growth but diligently focusing on internal optimization, becoming a more efficient and cost-effective operation. This strategic focus on profitability over pure expansion could be setting the stage for a dramatic shift in the company's fortunes.

Consider this: Real Good Food is tapping into a growing market segment of health-conscious consumers seeking convenient and delicious alternatives to traditional frozen meals. Their focus on high-protein, low-sugar options resonates with the current dietary trends, potentially giving them a competitive edge in a crowded market.

Furthermore, the company's decision to expand its e-commerce presence, offering direct-to-consumer sales, could be a game-changer. This strategy allows them to bypass traditional retail channels, capturing a larger share of the profits and building direct relationships with their customers.

The convergence of these factors – a streamlined operation, a targeted market segment, and a growing online presence – suggests that Real Good Food might be poised for a breakout year. While the lack of analyst coverage and the company's relatively recent IPO might keep it off the radar for many investors, the data tells a compelling story. The quiet optimization and strategic positioning taking place within Real Good Food could be the prelude to a significant financial turnaround, making it a compelling contrarian bet for investors seeking hidden gems in the market.

"Fun Fact: The global frozen food market is expected to reach $388.8 billion by 2027, growing at a CAGR of 4.5%. Real Good Food is strategically positioned to capitalize on this trend with its health-focused frozen entrees."