May 9, 2024 - STR

The Hidden Gem in Sitio Royalties' Transcript That Wall Street Missed

Sitio Royalties Corp. just released their Q1 2024 earnings transcript, and while Wall Street is buzzing about record production and the recent DJ Basin acquisition, something else caught my eye, something potentially more significant, something hidden in plain sight that no one else seems to be talking about: Sitio's quiet revolution in minerals data management.

Now, I know what you're thinking: data management? That's about as exciting as watching paint dry. But trust me, this is where the real story lies. Sitio is building something truly unique, a data-driven engine that's set to supercharge their growth and leave traditional mineral companies in the dust.

Remember, mineral rights are complex. Think about it: thousands of wells, hundreds of operators, royalty checks flowing in from every direction. It's a tangled web of leases, production data, and ever-changing regulations. Traditionally, mineral companies have relied on manual processes and spreadsheets to manage this chaos. But Sitio is taking a different approach, leveraging cutting-edge technology to bring order to this complexity.

Ross Wong, VP of Finance and Investor Relations, let slip the secret during the Q1 2024 Earnings Conference Call (STR): "We get about 225 checks a month, and each of those checks has over 6,000 rows of data… millions and millions of rows of data that we have to manage and mine for information."

That's a staggering amount of data, and Sitio isn't just collecting it, they're weaponizing it. They're building custom systems to extract valuable insights that drive better decisions.

How Sitio's Data Advantage is Playing Out:

Uncovering Hidden Production: Sitio's technology helps them identify production that's not being reported, effectively "finding" additional revenue that was previously overlooked. This is a game-changer in an industry where every barrel counts.Sharper Acquisitions: Imagine being able to analyze thousands of potential mineral deals, instantly identifying the most promising opportunities based on hard data. That's what Sitio's data engine enables them to do, giving them a significant edge in a competitive M&A landscape.Proactive Management: Armed with real-time production data and operator activity, Sitio can proactively manage their portfolio, optimizing lease agreements, and ensuring they're getting every dollar they're owed. This is a level of granularity and control that traditional mineral companies can only dream of.

Sitio's Financial Performance

MetricQ1 2024
Pro Forma Discretionary Cash Flow$118 million
Pro Forma Adjusted EBITDA$144 million
Total Return of Capital (% of DCF)65%
Dividend Per Share$0.41
Share Repurchases$13 million

Share Repurchase Breakdown

In March, Sitio repurchased over 545,000 shares of Class A common stock at an average price of $23.77. In April, they continued buying back shares in the open market and privately negotiated a block trade, repurchasing approximately 2 million shares from two of their largest Class C holders.

Visualizing Sitio's Production Growth

The chart below represents Sitio's pro forma production growth, including the impact of the DJ Basin acquisition.

The Hypothesis:

As Sitio continues to invest in their data infrastructure, their competitive advantage will only grow stronger. They'll be able to identify more hidden production, close more accretive deals, and manage their assets with unparalleled efficiency. This data-driven approach could be the key to unlocking exponential growth for Sitio, making them the leading mineral company of the future.

The Bottom Line:

While the market focuses on the DJ Basin acquisition, don't underestimate the power of Sitio's data revolution. This is a company that's playing the long game, building a foundation for sustained success that could redefine the entire mineral industry. Keep your eyes on Sitio, they're about to blow the doors off.

"Fun Fact: The DJ Basin, where Sitio made their latest acquisition, is named after the "Denver-Julesburg" region in Colorado and Wyoming. It's known for its rich oil and natural gas reserves, first discovered in the 19th century!"