May 2, 2024 - FDP

The Hidden Gold Mine in Fresh Del Monte's Pineapple Patch: Why Wall Street is Missing the Biggest Story

Fresh Del Monte, the global fruit giant known for its iconic bananas, just revealed its Q1 2024 earnings. While most analysts are focused on the headwinds in the banana market – declining consumption and a brutally strong Costa Rican colón – a deeper dive into the transcript reveals a far more intriguing story unfolding: Fresh Del Monte is quietly engineering a pineapple revolution that's about to dramatically reshape its profitability.

Yes, the banana business is facing challenges. North American consumption dropped 5%, dragging down volume and pricing. Europe isn't faring much better. But Fresh Del Monte, under the visionary leadership of Chairman and CEO Mohammad Ghazaleh, isn't simply riding out the storm. They're proactively steering the company toward a higher-margin, higher-value future, and that future is painted in vibrant shades of pink, yellow, and now, red.

Forget the traditional gold pineapple. Fresh Del Monte is capturing the market's imagination with its line of specialty pineapples, and the results are nothing short of extraordinary. Honeyglow, the high-color pineapple, and Pinkglow, the Instagram-famous pink pineapple, are experiencing phenomenal growth. Combined, these innovative varieties now account for a staggering 20% of Fresh Del Monte's total pineapple volume, and that number is poised to surge even higher.

"The strategic brilliance of this shift is evident in the Q1 transcript. Ghazaleh emphasizes that these specialty pineapples aren't simply displacing traditional gold pineapples on supermarket shelves; they're creating entirely new demand, generating incremental sales at significantly higher price points. In fact, demand is outstripping supply. Consumers, captivated by the unique colors and flavors, are willing to pay a premium for these exceptional fruits."

While Fresh Del Monte hasn't disclosed the exact profitability difference between the specialty pineapples and the traditional gold variety, Ghazaleh's emphatic response – “By far. It's a huge, huge, I would say, I cannot tell you exactly, but it's public, it's not for public input, but it is very significant difference in value” – speaks volumes. This “significant difference in value” is the key to unlocking Fresh Del Monte's future, and it's a difference Wall Street is largely ignoring.

Projected Impact of Specialty Pineapple Growth on Profitability

The following chart illustrates a hypothetical scenario based on the assumption that specialty pineapples command a 50% higher profit margin than traditional gold pineapples. It highlights the potential profit acceleration as these varieties claim a larger share of Fresh Del Monte's pineapple program.

Consider this: If the specialty pineapples command a 50% higher profit margin compared to the gold pineapple – a conservative estimate given Ghazaleh's description – and they currently constitute 20% of total pineapple volume, a mere 10% increase in their share of the pineapple program could translate into a substantial profit jump. Factor in the expansion of existing pineapple production and the introduction of the new, ultra-premium Rubyglow pineapple, and the potential for profit acceleration becomes even more compelling.

This isn't just wishful thinking. Fresh Del Monte has the resources, infrastructure, and strategic vision to make this happen. They possess ample land for expanding their pineapple farms, a tightly integrated supply chain for maximizing efficiencies, and a keen understanding of consumer preferences. They're also leveraging their pineapple prowess to pioneer innovative byproducts, like biofertilizers, further enhancing their sustainability and profitability.

Hypothesis:

As specialty pineapples claim a larger share of Fresh Del Monte's pineapple program, and as production of these higher-margin varieties expands, we can expect to see a significant and sustained improvement in the company's overall profitability. The exact magnitude of this improvement will depend on factors like consumer demand, production efficiencies, and pricing strategies, but the potential for outsized returns is undeniable.

Supporting Data:

62% year-over-year sales increase for Pinkglow pineapples in Q1 2024.

13% year-over-year sales increase for Honeyglow pineapples in Q1 2024.

CEO Mohammad Ghazaleh's statement about the "huge, huge" difference in value between specialty pineapples and traditional gold pineapples.

Fresh Del Monte is more than just a banana company. It's a pioneer, an innovator, and a strategic leader in the global fruit market. Their focus on specialty pineapples is a testament to their long-term vision and their commitment to shareholder value. As the pineapple revolution gains momentum, Fresh Del Monte is set to reap the rewards, leaving Wall Street scrambling to catch up with the biggest story in the fruit aisle.

"Fun Fact: Pineapples are not a single fruit, but a cluster of hundreds of fruitlets that have fused together!"