Virios Therapeutics is laser-focused on two things: getting their fibromyalgia treatment, IMC-1, through Phase 3 trials and navigating the regulatory landscape for their Long-COVID candidate, IMC-2. And while these are both worthy pursuits, a deeper dive into their Q1 2024 transcript reveals a hidden treasure they seem to be overlooking: the sheer untapped potential of their Long-COVID treatment in the global market.

The company acknowledges the staggering number of potential Long-COVID patients, citing CDC estimates of 11.2 million people *currently* suffering from active Long-COVID symptoms in the US alone. This figure, they rightly note, represents a massive market desperate for FDA-approved treatment options. But here's where things get interesting: Virios frames this 11.2 million as a "patient target" for their US market. They briefly mention "millions of patients worldwide" but swiftly return to their domestic focus.

This myopic view underestimates the true scale of the Long-COVID crisis, particularly in developing nations where accurate data collection and reporting are often hampered by limited resources. The World Health Organization estimates that 1 in 10 individuals infected with COVID-19 experiences prolonged symptoms. Given the global scale of the pandemic, this translates to hundreds of millions of potential Long-COVID patients worldwide.

Virios' own research underscores the global applicability of their treatment. The successful proof-of-concept study referenced in the transcript involved a combination of valacyclovir and celecoxib, generic drugs readily available in most countries. This accessibility, coupled with the treatment's demonstrated efficacy in reducing fatigue, orthostatic intolerance, anxiety, and pain, positions IMC-2 to become a game-changer for Long-COVID patients not just in the US, but globally.

Consider this: India, with its vast population and a significant COVID-19 burden, could alone harbor tens of millions of Long-COVID patients. Similar scenarios likely exist in numerous other countries across Asia, Africa, and South America. Virios, with its focus on partnering for the fibromyalgia program, appears to be missing out on a monumental opportunity to leverage the global reach of generic medications and address a global health crisis.

Hypothetical Market Opportunity

Here's a hypothesis: let's assume, conservatively, that 5% of the global population (approximately 8 billion) experienced COVID-19 infection. If the WHO's estimate of 10% Long-COVID prevalence holds true, this translates to 400 million potential Long-COVID patients worldwide. Even capturing a small fraction of this market, say 1%, represents 4 million patients. If each patient requires a 3-month course of treatment priced at a modest $50 (accounting for the generic nature of the drugs), this translates to a $600 million market opportunity.

This figure is a back-of-the-envelope calculation, but it highlights the order of magnitude of the potential global market for Virios' Long-COVID treatment. A more comprehensive analysis, factoring in country-specific prevalence rates, pricing variations, and market penetration strategies, could reveal an even more impressive opportunity.

Virios' current focus on domestic partnerships is understandable, but they need to broaden their vision. A strategic partnership with a global pharmaceutical company, leveraging their existing distribution networks and marketing expertise, could unlock the true value of IMC-2 and deliver significant returns for Virios shareholders.

Virios R&D Expenditures Over Time

Virios has consistently invested in research and development. The chart below shows their R&D expenditures based on available quarterly data.

The Long-COVID crisis is global, and Virios, with its promising treatment, holds a key to alleviating the suffering of millions. Expanding their focus beyond US borders could not only generate significant revenue, but also position them as a leader in addressing a pressing global health challenge. The potential is there, waiting to be seized.

"Fun Fact: The generic drugs used in Virios' Long-COVID treatment, valacyclovir and celecoxib, are on the World Health Organization's List of Essential Medicines, highlighting their importance and accessibility globally."