Compugen, the Israeli biotech known for its AI-powered drug discovery platform, recently held its Q1 2024 earnings call. While the headlines focused on the company's decision to pause further development of its triple IO combination in colorectal cancer, a closer look at the transcript reveals a hidden signal that's been largely overlooked – the potential for a blockbuster drug in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer.

This isn't just wishful thinking. The subtle shift in language regarding Compugen's ongoing platinum-resistant ovarian cancer trial, coupled with the aggressive timelines and an evolving competitive landscape, points towards a level of confidence not seen in previous quarters. Here's why this hidden signal might just be the prelude to a major breakthrough.

The Evolving Language of Confidence

Past discussions about Compugen's triple combination in ovarian cancer were cautiously optimistic, highlighting encouraging data but always acknowledging the need for further validation. This quarter, the language has shifted. There's a newfound confidence in both Anat Cohen-Dayag's, the CEO's, statements and the emphasis placed on the upcoming data presentation. Phrases like "investigators were excited," "durable shrinking or stabilization of tumors," and "favorable considering median duration of response" paint a picture of not just promising results, but of a potentially game-changing treatment.

Aggressive Timelines: A Sign of Strong Internal Conviction?

The company's commitment to rapid execution is evident in the aggressive timelines for its ovarian cancer trial. Enrollment of at least 20 patients is expected to be completed by the end of Q1 2024, with data presentation planned for Q4 2024. This urgency suggests a high level of internal conviction in the strength of the data and the potential of the treatment.

A Biomarker Strategy: A Calculated Bet in a Competitive Landscape

Perhaps the most telling signal is Compugen's increasingly clear focus on a biomarker-driven development strategy. While not explicitly stating that future trials will be exclusively biomarker-driven, the company is actively optimizing its PVRL2 assay and emphasizes that they will "make sure that we'll have the assay to select patients ready" if the data continues to show strong correlation between PVRL2 expression and clinical benefit.

This strategic shift isn't accidental. The ovarian cancer treatment landscape is rapidly evolving, with the recent approval of mirvetuximab soravtansine (MIRV), a folate receptor alpha (FRα)-targeting antibody-drug conjugate (ADC), setting a new benchmark for efficacy. Compugen recognizes that a biomarker strategy, by enriching for patients most likely to respond, could provide a crucial advantage, potentially enabling smaller, faster trials and positioning them for a significant slice of the market.

Let's Talk Numbers: A Hypothesis Worth Exploring

If Compugen's triple combination maintains the 20% overall response rate observed in the first cohort and the upcoming data demonstrates durable responses exceeding the current benchmarks (median duration of response for single-agent chemotherapy is around 3-4 months, while for ADCs it's around 6.9 months), the company will be well-positioned to advance towards a registrational trial.

Furthermore, if the PVRL2 biomarker proves to be a reliable predictor of response, Compugen could target a specific patient population, potentially those who have progressed on or are ineligible for ADCs, a segment with significant unmet need. This targeted approach, combined with a favorable safety profile, could drive rapid adoption and position Compugen's triple combination as a blockbuster treatment in the platinum-resistant ovarian cancer market.

Duration of Response Comparison

The table below compares the duration of response observed in Compugen's ovarian cancer trial with the current benchmarks.

>16 months

~6.9 months

~3-4 months

Beyond the Numbers: Compugen's History of Discovery

Compugen's history is littered with examples of its ability to identify and validate novel drug targets. It was among the first to discover TIGIT, leading to a lucrative partnership with AstraZeneca that recently yielded a $10 million milestone payment. The company's track record, combined with its AI-driven platform, suggests that its confidence in the ovarian cancer program is grounded in more than just preliminary data.

The Bottom Line: A Hidden Signal Worth Watching

The subtle but significant shifts in Compugen's language, its aggressive timelines, and its focus on a biomarker strategy suggest that the company sees a much larger opportunity in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer than has been widely recognized.

While the full story will unfold with the data presentation later this year, the hidden signals in Compugen's recent transcript point towards a potential blockbuster drug on the horizon. This is a company, and a story, worth watching closely.

"Potential Blockbuster: Compugen's triple IO combination shows promise as a potential blockbuster drug for platinum-resistant ovarian cancer."

"AI-Driven Discovery: Compugen's AI-powered drug discovery platform has a proven track record of identifying and validating novel drug targets."

"Biomarker Strategy: The company's focus on a biomarker-driven development strategy could provide a crucial advantage in the competitive ovarian cancer treatment landscape."