March 6, 2021 - IVEVF

The Hidden Signal: Is Inventiva Poised for a Lucrative Buyout?

Buried within Inventiva's recent earnings call transcript lies a subtle, yet potentially explosive detail, hinting at a future far more lucrative than analysts may realize. While much of the focus centered around the promising Phase 3 trial for their NASH drug, Lanifibranor, and the strategic search for a partner for their MPS treatment, Odiparcil, a key phrase stands out: 'We have the time to optimize those options.'

This seemingly innocuous statement, uttered by CFO Jean Volatier in response to a question about R&D spending and potential funding avenues, takes on a whole new meaning when considered in context. Inventiva, flush with €113 million in cash as of the end of 2020, projects a runway extending through Q4 2022. This timeline, notably, *does not* factor in any potential milestones from their existing partnership with AbbVie for the drug Cedirogant, nor any income from out-licensing deals for either Odiparcil or even Lanifibranor in specific regions.

Inventiva's Position of Strength

Here's where things get interesting. Inventiva isn't simply looking at traditional methods of extending their runway. They're exploring 'innovative options,' including royalty deals and even hinting at the possibility of a complete buyout. Let's consider the evidence.

Commitment to Lanifibranor: The company emphasizes having 'not slowed down in any way' in the launch of their crucial Phase 3 trial for Lanifibranor, despite the funding gap. This signifies a strong belief in the drug's potential and suggests a high level of confidence in securing attractive funding options.

Strategic Optimization: The emphasis on 'optimizing those options' implies a deliberate approach. They are in a position of strength, holding a portfolio of promising assets.

Hot NASH Market: The market for NASH treatments remains hot. Inventiva, with its promising drug candidate, becomes a prime target for acquisition by larger pharmaceutical companies seeking entry into this lucrative market.

The Potential of a Lanifibranor Buyout

While a buyout remains speculative, the signals are undeniable. Inventiva's leadership possesses a clear understanding of their assets' value and their leverage in the current market. Their measured confidence and emphasis on 'optimization' suggest a strategic vision extending beyond simple partnerships.

"The NASH Market Opportunity: Projected to reach $35-40 billion by 2025. Even capturing a fraction of this market would represent a multi-billion dollar opportunity for Inventiva."

Cash Runway Analysis

While Inventiva projects its current cash runway through Q4 2022, this excludes potential income from milestones, partnerships, or licensing deals. Let's analyze their potential cash flow:

ScenarioPotential Cash Inflow
AbbVie Milestone for CedirogantUndisclosed (potentially significant)
Odiparcil Partnership/LicensingUp to hundreds of millions (estimated)
Lanifibranor Regional LicensingUp to hundreds of millions per region (estimated)
Complete BuyoutBillions (hypothetical, depending on market conditions and Lanifibranor's Phase 3 results)

Conclusion: Awaiting the Payoff

While risks remain, the potential for a substantial return on investment based on this hidden signal within Inventiva's transcript is simply too compelling to ignore. This is a company playing chess, not checkers, and the grand prize might just be a game-changing acquisition.

"Fun Fact: The global NASH market is larger than the entire economies of many countries, highlighting the immense need for effective treatments."