May 8, 2024 - INVE
Hidden in the dense financial details of Identiv's Q1 2024 earnings call lies a seismic shift, a subtle
revolution quietly taking root. It's not the $145 million divestiture, although that certainly grabbed
headlines. It's not the appointment of the impressive Kirsten Newquist as the new CEO of the remaining IoT
business. It's the potential impact of their specialty complex RF enabled IoT solutions, specifically in
healthcare. And it's an impact that could be significantly larger than most analysts realize.
Newquist, a veteran of Avery Dennison with a proven track record in healthcare, brings a unique perspective to
Identiv. She understands the complexities of the medical device industry, the regulatory hurdles, and the
long sales cycles. More importantly, she sees the immense opportunity for RFID technology to address
critical, costly healthcare challenges. She cites medication non-adherence, a problem costing the U.S.
healthcare system at least $105 billion annually, as a prime example. And that's just the tip of the
iceberg.
Identiv's technology can address a vast array of challenges beyond medication adherence: drug mix-ups,
counterfeit pharmaceuticals, blood bag and sample tracking, diagnostic test authentication, the list goes
on. Each one represents a significant cost to the healthcare system, a cost that RFID solutions can
dramatically reduce. But here's where it gets truly interesting – the scale of the opportunity.
Newquist mentions a staggering figure: over 5 billion prescriptions filled annually in the U.S. alone. Imagine
even a modest 10% penetration of RFID-enabled solutions for medication adherence in this market. That
translates into 500 million RFID units, a figure not far off from Identiv's total 2023 RFID unit volume of
200 million.
And that's just prescriptions. Add in the global market for syringes (16 billion annually), the shift of care
from hospitals to homes, the rise of personalized medicine and temperature-sensitive biologics, and the
opportunity explodes. We're talking about billions of potential RFID units, a market that dwarfs Identiv's
current size.
The financial implications are equally compelling. These specialty healthcare applications command higher gross
margins, often exceeding 35%. If Identiv can achieve even a fraction of the market penetration their
technology allows, they could be looking at a multi-billion dollar revenue stream with significantly higher
margins than their current business.
Of course, healthcare is a long game. Newquist is clear about the time it takes to navigate regulatory
approvals, conduct pilots, and integrate solutions into existing manufacturing processes. But this is
precisely why Identiv's move is so brilliant. They are strategically positioning themselves at the forefront
of a nascent market, a market poised for explosive growth in the coming years.
Identiv is not just riding the wave of healthcare's digital transformation, they are building the surfboard. And
while Wall Street is focused on the immediate financial impact of the divestiture, they may be missing the
true story – a story of an invisible giant quietly laying the foundation for a future that could transform
healthcare as we know it.
Based on conservative market penetration estimates and average selling prices, the potential revenue impact of
Identiv's RFID solutions in healthcare is significant.
These are just two examples. The true potential impact of Identiv's RFID solutions in healthcare is likely
far greater, a potential that may be unfolding right under Wall Street's nose.
"Fun Fact: The global healthcare RFID market size was valued at USD 2.5 billion in 2022 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.9% from 2023 to 2030. This demonstrates the massive potential for growth in this market, and Identiv is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend."