Aura Minerals is painting a rosy picture for investors. Production is up, costs are down, and expansion projects gleam with promise. The narrative is compelling: a mid-tier gold producer poised for explosive growth, showering shareholders with dividends along the way. But beneath the surface, a single, overlooked metric tells a different story – one that hints at an even more dramatic growth trajectory than Aura is letting on.

It's not about gold prices, hedge positions, or even the tantalizing potential of Borborema's expanded reserves. It's about a fundamental shift in Aura's operational strategy, one that's quietly reshaping their production profile and setting the stage for a potential doubling of output in the next few years.

What is this hidden signal? It's the dramatic rise in Aura's last 12 months (LTM) production, a figure that smooths out the inherent volatility of quarterly results and reveals a clear upward trend. While analysts focus on the impressive 28% production jump in Q1 2024 (Source: Aura Minerals Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript), the real story lies in the consistent climb of LTM production since Q2 2023.

LTM Production: The Silent Growth Story

This isn't just a blip; it's the culmination of a deliberate operational shift. Aura has tackled past productivity issues head-on, particularly at the Minosa mine, turning it into a consistent performer. They've also brought Almas online, a greenfield project that defied industry trends by finishing on time and on budget, now contributing a steady flow of gold.

Expansion Plans: Fueling the Fire

But the story doesn't end there. Aura is actively pursuing capacity expansions at existing mines, most notably Apoena, driven by the potential of higher-grade ore bodies. These expansions, coupled with the impending start-up of the Borborema project in early 2025 – with its projected 90,000 ounces of annual production – create a potent formula for continued LTM production growth.

"Borborema's Potential: As highlighted by Rodrigo Barbosa, CEO of Aura Minerals, during the Q1 2024 earnings call, the Borborema project "starts with reserves around 815,000 ounces of reserves, but we have over 2 million ounces of resources... As we move one road, that reserves can be more than doubled and reach across 2 million ounces...""

Charting the Course to 500,000 Ounces

Let's run a simple, back-of-the-envelope calculation. Assuming stable production throughout 2024, Aura is poised to end the year with an LTM production figure nearing 290,000 ounces. Add Borborema's 90,000 ounces in 2025, and you're looking at a potential LTM production figure exceeding 380,000 ounces by the end of 2025. This represents a potential doubling of their LTM production from Q2 2023 levels in just two and a half years.

Aura's narrative focuses on reaching 450,000 ounces of annualized production by the end of 2025. But the overlooked LTM production figure suggests that they might be significantly underselling their growth potential. If Aura can successfully execute their expansion plans and maintain operational stability, the path to exceeding 500,000 ounces of annualized production within the next few years becomes increasingly clear.

Conclusion: The LTM Advantage

While investors cheer for quarterly production jumps and shiny new projects, the real treasure lies in Aura's consistent, and largely unnoticed, climb in LTM production. This metric whispers a secret: Aura Minerals is not just growing; they are transforming into a gold producing powerhouse, quietly setting the stage for a future far brighter than the current narrative reveals.

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