Aker ASA, the Norwegian industrial giant with its fingers in everything from oil and gas to krill harvesting, has been quietly undergoing a transformation. While the world focuses on the recent court case against Aker BP and the potential slowdown in Johan Sverdrup production, a deeper shift is taking place within the Aker ecosystem – a shift that hints at a future where the company's reliance on fossil fuels diminishes, replaced by a burgeoning digital empire.

On the surface, Aker ASA remains heavily reliant on oil and gas. Aker BP, their flagship energy company, contributes over half their asset base. However, a closer look at the Q4 2023 earnings transcript reveals a subtle but significant shift in Aker's priorities. The emphasis is no longer solely on upstream dividends from oil and gas. Instead, a new mantra emerges: "diversifying and increasing upstream dividends *across our portfolio*."

This subtle change in language speaks volumes. It signifies a conscious effort to move beyond the traditional oil and gas cash cow and generate returns from a broader range of ventures. This shift becomes even more evident when examining the rapid growth of their software portfolio, specifically Cognite and Aize.

Cognite, Aker's industrial software powerhouse, has just crossed a remarkable milestone: exceeding NOK 1 billion in annual revenue for the first time, a 25% year-on-year growth. Aize, specializing in collaborative workspace solutions, isn't far behind, securing a significant contract with BP. These are not isolated successes. They point towards a deliberate strategy to build a thriving digital business within Aker, one capable of eventually rivaling, and perhaps even surpassing, the revenue generated by oil and gas.

This hypothesis is further supported by a simple comparison. In 2023, Cognite alone generated NOK 1 billion in revenue. Aker BP, despite its massive size and contribution to Aker's asset base, only contributed NOK 842 million in dividends to Aker ASA. This disparity is striking. It suggests that Cognite, with its significantly smaller asset base and younger age, is rapidly catching up to the cash generation potential of a mature oil and gas giant.

Revenue Comparison: Cognite vs. Aker BP Dividend Contribution

The following chart illustrates the revenue disparity between Cognite and Aker BP's dividend contribution to Aker ASA in 2023.

Furthermore, the appointment of Christian Rynning-Tonnesen, the former CEO of Statkraft (Europe's renewable energy behemoth), as the head of ICP Infrastructure, further strengthens Aker's commitment to a greener, digitally driven future. Rynning-Tonnesen's extensive experience in renewables and his global network provide ICP Infrastructure with the necessary expertise to capitalize on the booming clean technology sector.

Aker's foray into digitalization is not a reactive response to climate pressures or fluctuating oil prices. It's a proactive move, a calculated bet on the future of industrial operations. They recognize that data is the new oil, and their software ventures are perfectly positioned to capitalize on this trend.

While Aker BP grapples with legal challenges and plateau production at Johan Sverdrup, Cognite and Aize are quietly building a digital empire within Aker, generating recurring revenue and forging valuable partnerships. This silent revolution, unfolding within Aker ASA, might be a glimpse into a future where data, not fossil fuels, becomes the driving force behind the industrial giant's success.

Hypothesis:

Aker ASA's software portfolio, specifically Cognite and Aize, will continue to grow at a rapid pace, eventually surpassing the revenue generated by their oil and gas ventures. This will lead to a shift in Aker's reliance on fossil fuels, transitioning them towards a more sustainable and digitally-driven future.

Key Numbers:

Cognite 2023 revenue: NOK 1 billion

Aker BP 2023 dividend contribution to Aker ASA: NOK 842 million

Aker's upstream dividend increase from 2022 to 2023: Almost 60%

"Fun Fact: Aker ASA's history dates back to 1841 when it started as a small shipyard. From building ships, the company has expanded its reach into diverse sectors, becoming a global conglomerate with a rich heritage of innovation and adaptability."