May 7, 2024 - REAL

The RealReal: Is a Luxury Resale Tsunami About to Break?

Buried within The RealReal's Q1 2024 earnings call transcript <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/REAL" alt="The RealReal, Inc.">The RealReal Q1 2024 Earnings Call</a> lies a subtle but significant shift. While analysts are understandably focused on the company's return to top-line growth and impressive gross margins, a closer look reveals a potential tidal wave forming in the luxury resale market ​– a wave that could propel The RealReal to unprecedented heights.

The telltale sign? A quiet but consistent increase in the average selling price (ASP) of consigned goods, coupled with a growing emphasis on high-value items. While these factors are certainly contributing to the company's current profitability, they also suggest a profound change in consumer behavior, one with far-reaching implications.

Historically, luxury resale platforms have relied on attracting a broad base of buyers, offering a diverse range of price points. However, The RealReal's recent performance suggests that the most valuable segment ​– high-end shoppers seeking top-tier brands ​– is becoming increasingly active in the resale market.

Evidence of the Shift

This hypothesis is supported by several data points from the <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/REAL" alt="The RealReal, Inc.">The RealReal Q1 2024 Earnings Call</a>:

The potential implications of this shift are profound. If high-end shoppers are indeed embracing resale, it could trigger a domino effect, accelerating the growth of the entire market. This is particularly significant for The RealReal, given their expertise in authenticating and selling high-value luxury goods.

Why This Could Be a Game-Changer

The RealReal's focus on AI-powered pricing algorithms and a robust authentication process will further fuel this potential surge. With the ability to accurately assess the value of high-value items and guarantee authenticity, The RealReal is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this emerging trend.

Consignment vs. Direct Revenue Trend

The chart below shows the trend of consignment and direct revenue over the last four quarters, based on information from <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/REAL" alt="The RealReal, Inc.">The RealReal Q1 2024 Earnings Call</a>. The decline in Direct revenue and the rise of Consignment revenue demonstrate the company's strategic shift toward a more profitable business model.

While the full impact of this shift remains to be seen, the early indicators are compelling. The RealReal's Q1 performance, combined with their strategic focus, suggests that the company is poised to ride a wave of high-end resale, potentially transforming the luxury market in the process.

"Fun Fact: The RealReal has authenticated over 26 million luxury items since its inception, making it the largest authenticated luxury consignment marketplace in the world. This unparalleled expertise in authentication is a crucial factor in attracting and retaining high-end shoppers and consignors."

Company Financials: