Wall Street is obsessed with China. Every earnings call, every analyst report seems to fixate on Apple's performance there. But amidst this, Apple's expansion in emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia and India, is quietly reshaping the company's future.

While analysts discuss declining revenue figures in Greater China, both the February and May earnings calls reveal a stark truth: Apple is seeing success in emerging markets. In February, Tim Cook announced double-digit revenue growth in India, a trend that continued into the March quarter. This growth isn't confined to India. The sheer breadth of this expansion is noteworthy.

Apple's strategy in emerging markets is built on a long-term vision. They're methodically building a sustainable ecosystem. As Cook stated in the May call regarding India, 'We're continuing to expand our channels, and also working on the developer ecosystem.' This holistic approach, encompassing operational expansion, retail presence, and developer outreach, is paving the way for Apple's long-term dominance.

"Luca Maestri, Apple's CFO, acknowledged the significance of emerging markets in the May call, stating, 'Obviously, China is by far the largest emerging market that we have. But when we started looking at places like India, like Saudi, like Mexico, Turkey, of course, Brazil and Mexico and Indonesia, the numbers are getting large, and we're very happy because these are markets where our market share is low, the populations are large and growing. [...] So it is very good for us. And then -- and certainly, the numbers are getting larger all the time. And so the gap as you compare it to the numbers in China is reducing, and hopefully, that trajectory continues for a long time.'"

This emerging market momentum is driving growth in Apple's services business. While product revenue fluctuates, services have consistently delivered double-digit growth, quarter after quarter. This is fueled by the rapidly expanding installed base in these regions.

Emerging Market Growth vs. Greater China Revenue (Hypothetical)

The following chart is a hypothetical representation of Apple's revenue, emphasizing the growing importance of emerging markets.

Apple is laying the foundation for a future where its growth is increasingly driven by a diverse portfolio of emerging markets. While China will likely remain a vital market for Apple, its days as the sole growth engine are numbered.

"Fun Fact: Apple's first overseas store opened in Tokyo, Japan, in 2003, foreshadowing its global ambitions."