May 3, 2024 - TDS

The Silent Giant: Is TDS Telecom About to Unleash a Wholesale Revolution?

While the financial world focuses on the ongoing strategic review of UScellular, a silent, almost unnoticed revolution is brewing within Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. TDS Telecom, the often-overshadowed sibling of the wireless giant, is quietly building a fiber empire that could disrupt the entire broadband landscape.

The recent Q1 2024 earnings call for TDS, Inc. highlighted impressive growth figures for TDS Telecom. A 5% increase in revenue and a staggering 38% surge in adjusted EBITDA paint a picture of a company firing on all cylinders. But the true potential lies not just in these impressive numbers, but in a subtle shift in strategy that might have slipped past most analysts.

TDS Telecom has, for years, focused on a retail-centric model, owning its networks and serving customers directly. This approach, while successful, has limited its growth potential. Now, there are whispers of a potential paradigm shift: a move towards a wholesale model, where TDS Telecom would leverage its vast and growing fiber network to offer broadband access to other providers.

This possibility was sparked by a seemingly innocuous question during the Q1 earnings call, where an analyst inquired about TDS Telecom's potential interest in becoming a wholesale provider. Michelle Brukwicki, TDS Telecom's CFO, offered a seemingly definitive answer: "At this point, we're not considering opening up our networks to others."

However, seasoned market observers understand that "at this point" is not a permanent "no." In fact, it's the strategic ambiguity of this response that is raising eyebrows. Could TDS Telecom be holding its cards close to its chest, waiting for the right moment to unleash a wholesale offering that could dramatically accelerate its growth and valuation?

Why a Wholesale Pivot Makes Sense

Unprecedented Fiber Footprint: TDS Telecom is rapidly approaching its goal of 1.2 million marketable fiber service addresses. With 827,000 already in place, the company possesses a network asset that is incredibly attractive to potential wholesale partners, particularly those seeking to expand into rural markets where TDS Telecom has a strong presence.

Enhanced ACAM Program: The recent influx of $1.3 billion in funding through the enhanced ACAM program underscores the strategic importance of TDS Telecom's rural network to the national broadband strategy. This funding, while intended for retail service expansion, also strengthens the foundation for a potential wholesale offering.

Competitive Landscape: As cable giants increasingly encroach on the wireless space, TDS Telecom faces intensifying competition in its retail markets. A wholesale offering would provide a strategic counter-move, diversifying revenue streams and potentially turning cable companies into valuable customers rather than fierce rivals.

Financial Implications of a Wholesale Strategy

By opening its network to other providers, TDS Telecom could:

Accelerate Revenue Growth: The influx of wholesale revenue would dramatically boost the company's top line, potentially leading to a higher valuation multiple.

Reduce Capital Intensity: By sharing its network infrastructure, TDS Telecom could moderate its future capital expenditures, freeing up resources for other strategic initiatives.

Unlock Hidden Value: The market value of TDS Telecom's fiber network, currently obscured within the larger TDS, Inc. conglomerate, would become more transparent and potentially drive a significant increase in shareholder value.

TDS Telecom's Fiber Deployment Progress

The following chart, based on data from the Q1 2024 earnings call, shows TDS Telecom's progress towards its goal of 1.2 million marketable fiber service addresses.

While the precise timing and structure of a potential wholesale offering remain unclear, the very possibility is a game-changer for TDS Telecom. The company, often overshadowed by its larger sibling, is poised to emerge as a significant player in the evolving broadband landscape.

"Fun Fact: TDS, Inc.'s origins can be traced back to a small telephone company founded in Wisconsin in 1969. Today, the company's reach extends far beyond its humble beginnings, connecting millions of customers across the United States."