April 25, 2024 - RMD
Wall Street is buzzing about ResMed's strong second and third quarter earnings, driven by double-digit growth in devices and their Software-as-a-Service business. Analysts are praising their operational excellence and efficient execution. But they're missing the truly seismic shift happening beneath the surface: ResMed isn't just meeting existing demand, they're about to be swept up in a patient influx of unprecedented scale, a veritable tidal wave of sleep apnea patients. And it's all thanks to two unlikely heroes: Big Tech and Big Pharma.
The first wave is rising from the wrists of millions, propelled by Big Tech's obsession with sleep wellness. Apple, Samsung, Google's Fitbit, WHOOP - all are embedding sleep tracking capabilities into their devices, turning sleep data from a niche concern into a mainstream obsession. This focus on sleep wellness is about to spill over into the realm of sleep health, turning casual trackers into active seekers of diagnoses and treatments.
Imagine millions waking up to data that suggests troubled breathing during the night, or consistently poor sleep quality. Suddenly, sleep apnea and insomnia are no longer abstract conditions, they're personal realities backed by hard data. And who will they turn to for answers? ResMed, the company already positioned as the global leader in sleep apnea treatment with a robust digital health ecosystem.
But that's not all. The second wave, perhaps even larger, is being driven by Big Pharma's revolution in obesity treatment. GLP-1 medications are changing the game, pushing patients previously disengaged from the healthcare system to actively seek treatment and manage their health. And here's the kicker: ResMed's own data reveals that patients prescribed GLP-1 medications are not just more likely to start CPAP therapy ( a 10% increase!), they're also more adherent to it, showing higher resupply rates at 12 and 24 months.
This means the GLP-1 boom is a double win for ResMed: more patients entering the funnel, and more motivated patients staying in the treatment journey. It's not just about weight loss, it's about a holistic approach to health, where improved sleep and breathing are recognized as integral to overall well-being.
ResMed isn't passively waiting for these waves to crash. They're actively investing in AI-powered tools like Compliance Coach, which helps providers efficiently manage patient adherence, and a generative AI-driven "digital concierge" that guides sleep-concerned consumers through the complex world of sleep health.
While other analysts focus on the immediate drivers of ResMed's success, they're failing to see the gathering momentum of these two massive patient waves. ResMed, the company that already helps over 170 million people sleep better and breathe better, is poised to become the go-to solution for a newly awakened and motivated population seeking to reclaim their sleep health. And that's a story that's just beginning to unfold.
The following chart illustrates the projected impact of Big Tech and Big Pharma on ResMed's patient base, based on conservative estimates.
"Fun Fact: Did you know that ResMed's founder, Dr. Peter Farrell, initially conceived the idea for the company's first CPAP machine while snorkeling in the Great Barrier Reef? Observing the natural flow of air through the snorkel inspired him to create a device that could mimic this process for sleep apnea patients."