The recent earnings call for <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMPS" alt="Altus Power, Inc.">Altus Power (AMPS)</a> painted a picture of a company facing headwinds. Delays in programmatic deals, slower-than-expected development, and questions around pipeline execution uncertainty were all openly addressed. Yet, beneath the surface of these challenges lies a potential catalyst, whispered about but not fully grasped: the imminent explosion of community solar.

While the narrative surrounding Altus focuses heavily on its relationships with large enterprises like Blackstone and CBRE, the company's quietly amassed a significant community solar customer base – now exceeding 24,000. This figure represents a staggering 20% growth in just one quarter, a detail that seems to have flown under the radar of many analysts fixated on the larger programmatic deals.

The strategic importance of community solar is underscored by the fact that 290 megawatts of Altus' 981 megawatt portfolio is dedicated to serving these customers. This is not a mere sideline; it's a strategic pillar of their business model. And with good reason. Community solar represents an untapped goldmine in densely populated areas, offering a compelling value proposition: clean energy at a discounted rate, conveniently delivered as a utility bill credit.

While Altus acknowledges challenges in customer acquisition due to a lack of awareness surrounding community solar, the staggering growth in their customer base within just three months suggests that this education gap is rapidly closing. Could this be the tipping point, the moment when community solar truly goes mainstream?

Projected Growth in Community Solar Customers

Let's look at the numbers. Assuming Altus maintains this 20% quarterly growth rate in its community solar customer base, by the end of 2024, they could be serving over 38,000 customers. If each customer subscribes to an average of 1kW of solar capacity, this would translate to an additional demand of 14 megawatts. Considering the average EBITDA generation per megawatt hovers around $100,000, this organic growth in community solar alone could add $1.4 million to Altus' annual EBITDA.

But this is just the tip of the iceberg. As more states implement community solar programs, the potential for expansion is exponential. Altus' existing portfolio, with its focus on variable rate contracts, positions them perfectly to capitalize on rising retail electricity prices, further enhancing the value proposition of their community solar offerings.

Imagine the scenario: a confluence of increasing electricity demand driven by AI, EV adoption, and a manufacturing renaissance, coupled with a surge in consumer awareness and adoption of community solar. This could be the perfect storm for Altus Power, propelling their community solar segment to become a dominant force within their portfolio.

While the market fixates on the perceived hurdles, a more astute observer might notice the whispers in the wind – the subtle signals pointing towards a seismic shift. Community solar is not merely a growth opportunity for Altus; it's a strategic linchpin with the potential to redefine their trajectory. And as the market catches on, those whispers could quickly turn into a roar.

"Fun Fact: Altus Power was founded by Lars Norell, a former investment banker with a passion for renewable energy. He envisioned a future where clean energy was not just a luxury for the wealthy, but a readily accessible option for everyone. This vision is clearly reflected in their commitment to community solar, democratizing access to clean energy for a wider customer base."