May 10, 2024 - COOK

Traeger's Secret Weapon: Whispers of a 2025 Grill Revolution

While analysts dissect Traeger's Q1 2024 earnings call, focusing on soft consumer demand and impressive gross margin gains, a hidden gem lies buried in the transcript, hinting at a potential game-changer for the company in 2025. Traeger is strategically sunsetting a number of grill models in the second half of 2024, paving the way for a major product launch in 2025. This isn't just a routine refresh – it's a calculated maneuver to create anticipation and prime the pump for a potentially revolutionary product that could redefine outdoor cooking.

Traeger's CEO, Jeremy Andrus, and CFO, Dom Blosil, didn't reveal specifics about the upcoming 2025 launch, but their carefully chosen words provide tantalizing clues. The emphasis on "bleeding down" older SKUs, "ramping up production" for new models, and "minimal to no inventory left" for discontinued grills, all point to a significant shift in their product strategy. Andrus explicitly stated that this is more than just incremental SKU launches, suggesting a broader and more impactful change is on the horizon.

Consider this: Traeger's 2024 guidance projects a high single-digit to low double-digit decline in grill revenue, largely attributed to sunsetting existing models. This indicates a substantial portion of their current grill lineup will be phased out. The anticipation for new products is further fueled by Andrus's affirmation of the company's substantial investment in product development, building a robust pipeline of innovations.

"This strategy isn't without risks. Sunsetting a significant portion of their grill offerings before the peak grilling season could potentially impact 2024 sales. However, the potential rewards outweigh the risks. By clearing out older models and creating a vacuum in the market, Traeger sets the stage for a dramatic unveiling of their 2025 innovations."

The company is clearly playing the long game, sacrificing short-term gains for a potential leap forward in 2025. This calculated risk demonstrates their confidence in their product development pipeline and their vision for the future of outdoor cooking.

Here's where things get even more interesting. Traeger's success hinges on its ability to continually innovate and stay ahead of the curve. They've been remarkably successful at doing so, transforming from a niche pellet grill manufacturer to a leading outdoor cooking brand.

Looking back at Traeger's history, we see a pattern of bold moves that have paid off. Their introduction of WiFIRE technology, allowing grill control via a smartphone app, was a game-changer, cementing their position as a leader in connected grilling. Their acquisition of MEATER, a smart thermometer company, broadened their product portfolio and strengthened their ability to offer a complete outdoor cooking solution.

Hypothetical Revenue Projections for 2024 & 2025

Based on Traeger's statements and guidance, we can project a potential revenue dip in 2024 followed by a strong rebound in 2025 driven by new product launches. The following graph visualizes this potential trend.

The upcoming 2025 launch could be their most ambitious innovation yet, possibly integrating cutting-edge technology, exploring new cooking techniques, or even venturing into new product categories beyond grills. Imagine a Traeger grill that utilizes artificial intelligence to personalize cooking experiences, or a revolutionary new smoker that combines pellet and charcoal grilling for unparalleled versatility.

The possibilities are endless, and Traeger's commitment to innovation leaves us eagerly anticipating what they have in store. While the specifics of the 2025 launch remain under wraps, the strategic moves outlined in the Q1 earnings call suggest a paradigm shift in outdoor cooking is on the horizon. Traeger isn't just planning for next quarter, they're setting the stage for a future where their grills and related products become the centerpiece of every outdoor kitchen.

"Traeger pellets are made from 100% natural hardwood, with no fillers or binding agents. This results in a cleaner burn and a more authentic wood-fired flavor."