May 14, 2024 - VNRX

VolitionRx: Riding the Licensing Wave to Revenue Riches?

Hidden within VolitionRx's recent earnings transcript, a subtle shift in language suggests a potentially massive, and largely overlooked, financial wave about to break. While analysts fixate on the steady advancement of the company's veterinary cancer test, Nu.Q Vet, and the approaching launch of the human sepsis test, Nu.Q NET, a different narrative is unfolding. VolitionRx is quietly positioning itself to become a licensing powerhouse, leveraging its disruptive Capture-PCR technology to potentially unlock a flood of milestone payments and royalties in the near future.

Recall Heska, the veterinary diagnostics company that inked an exclusive licensing agreement with VolitionRx for Nu.Q Vet? That deal, back in 2021, has already yielded $23 million in milestone payments, with a further $5 million potentially on the horizon pending the successful launch of the feline version of the test. Now, envision replicating that success multiple times within the considerably larger human healthcare market.

That's precisely what VolitionRx appears to be orchestrating with Capture-PCR, a technology so groundbreaking it could revolutionize cancer detection. The company's CEO, Cameron Reynolds, hails it as a "must-have" for any company operating in the liquid biopsy space, and the "level of excitement and interest from a range of driven groups" speaks volumes.

What Makes Capture-PCR Revolutionary?

Capture-PCR is the first technology to physically isolate circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) fragments from blood, eliminating the need for expensive and time-consuming DNA sequencing. This enables rapid, cost-effective cancer detection through a simple blood test.

"While the potential applications are vast, VolitionRx is strategically prioritizing licensing agreements over independent commercialization. By partnering with established industry players, VolitionRx can leverage their existing resources and expertise to maximize the reach and impact of Capture-PCR. This approach could be a financial game-changer for the company."

The Licensing Game: A Potential Windfall

VolitionRx is diligently compiling comprehensive data rooms, brimming with clinical data validating the technology's efficacy across various cancer types. This data, slated for completion by the end of June, will form the bedrock of licensing negotiations, providing potential partners with the concrete evidence needed to confidently invest in Capture-PCR.

If VolitionRx secures even a single licensing agreement for Capture-PCR mirroring the Heska deal, it could generate tens of millions of dollars in upfront milestone payments, followed by a consistent flow of royalties as the technology gains market traction.

Beyond Capture-PCR: Nu.Q NET Licensing on the Horizon

VolitionRx isn't stopping there. Concurrently, the company is building a data room for Nu.Q NET, its human sepsis test, with a similar licensing strategy in mind. Targeting a licensing agreement within the next 12 months, VolitionRx could unlock yet another significant revenue channel.

Hypothetical Scenario: Riding the Revenue Wave

Imagine VolitionRx secures licensing deals for Capture-PCR with two major diagnostic companies, each agreement yielding $20 million in upfront payments and 5% royalties on future sales. Assuming a conservative $1 billion market for Capture-PCR within five years, that translates to an extra $100 million in annual royalty income for VolitionRx.

Note: This is a hypothetical scenario. Actual outcomes may vary.

VolitionRx Revenue Projections (Hypothetical)

While the company's current revenue streams from Nu.Q Vet and Nu.Q Discover exhibit steady growth, the potential for explosive growth through licensing positions VolitionRx as a compelling investment opportunity. This is a company on the verge of a major breakthrough. Will investors seize the opportunity before it's too late?

"Fun Fact: VolitionRx's nucleosomics technology platform, which underpins its groundbreaking tests, was initially inspired by research into the DNA of salmon sperm!"