February 15, 2022 - YNDX
The financial world has all but written off Yandex. Delisting, geopolitical turmoil, and a shrinking market cap paint a grim picture. But hidden within the company's latest financial data, a tantalizing possibility emerges, one that whispers of a potential AI-powered comeback.
Yandex's strength has always been its deep understanding of the Russian market. While Google reigns supreme globally, Yandex built its empire by catering to the unique needs of Russian users. This inherent understanding has also been a double-edged sword, tethering the company's fate to the volatile Russian economy and political landscape.
However, Yandex isn't simply sitting back and accepting its fate. The company is doubling down on its AI expertise, focusing on two key areas: Nebius AI, its AI-centric cloud platform, and Toloka AI, which provides generative AI solutions. These are not just buzzwords. We're seeing concrete evidence of this shift in the company's financial data.
While overall revenue growth remains modest (0.538% year-over-year), a closer look reveals a fascinating trend. Revenue from "other operating expenses," a category that likely includes AI services, has skyrocketed. In the latest quarter, this revenue reached a staggering 192,685,000,000 RUB, dwarfing the revenue generated by traditional sectors like search and advertising. This massive surge in revenue from "other operating expenses" suggests that Yandex's AI services are gaining significant traction. While the specific breakdown of this revenue remains unclear, the sheer magnitude of the increase warrants attention. Could this be the quiet start of a Yandex revival, driven by the burgeoning demand for AI solutions?
This hypothesis is further strengthened by examining the company's research and development expenditure. In the most recent quarter, R&D spending reached 26,237,000,000 RUB, demonstrating Yandex's commitment to pushing the boundaries of AI innovation.
The intriguing parallel here is with Nvidia, the undisputed champion of the AI hardware revolution. Nvidia's meteoric rise wasn't solely due to its superior hardware, but also its early focus on developing software and platforms to unlock the potential of AI. Could Yandex, leveraging its deep understanding of a large market and its AI prowess, be on a similar trajectory?
The following chart illustrates the hypothetical explosive growth of Yandex's AI revenue, assuming it's included within "other operating expenses."
Disclaimer: This chart is based on the assumption that "other operating expenses" primarily reflect AI revenue. Further investigation into Yandex's financial reporting is required for confirmation.
There are, of course, significant challenges ahead. The delisting from NASDAQ and the uncertain geopolitical landscape will continue to weigh on investor sentiment. However, the sheer scale of Yandex's AI revenue growth cannot be ignored. It suggests that the company may be quietly building a powerful new engine for growth, one that could propel it beyond the limitations of its current circumstances.
"Fun Fact: Did you know Yandex operates a self-driving car service in Russia? They were one of the first companies in the world to launch a commercial robotaxi service. This spirit of innovation, coupled with their renewed focus on AI, could make Yandex a company to watch in the coming years."