After the books closed: the quarter's biggest news happened too late to be in the numbers
The model's full reasoning — Q4 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management reports that the most important positive developments happened so late in the period or shortly after it ended that the results contain little or none of their effect, with management marking the timing. Let's analyze the transcript. Key points: - Q4 2022 results: revenue up 61%, casino and gaming up 123%, FST recurring up 14%. - Full year revenue up 48%. - Management discusses casino and gaming market share gains due to competitor's inability to supply. - They added production lines in Q3 and Q4. Fourth production line just starting to manufacture printers now (at time of call, March 8, 2023). - They mention that they are hoping to work into inventory position versus air shipping. - For FST, they mention a large QSR expected to start coming online in second half of this year (2023). That's future, not late in period. - They mention SMB restaurant chains closed in first quarter of 2023 (after period end). That's a positive development after period end. - They also mention that they saw fourth quarter sales get pushed into first and second quarters. That's a timing issue but not necessarily a positive development that happened late; it's a delay. - They give guidance for 2023: revenue $70-72M, adjusted EBITDA $5.2-5.4M. Now, the question: Does management report that the most important positive developments happened so late in the period or shortly after it ended that the results contain little or none of their effect? We need to see if management explicitly says that the reported results don't reflect these late-breaking events, and that these events are the real story. Look for phrases like "late in the quarter", "since quarter-end", "just after", etc. In the transcript, Bart says: "We are currently anticipating full year 2023 total revenues to between $70 million and $72 million." That's guidance, not about the period. He also says: "I do want to mention that I will be attending the ROTH conference that's coming up Monday and Sunday night, Monday and Tuesday in Southern California" - that's not relevant. He mentions: "We added 251 Paid Terminals in the fourth quarter, ending the year with 12,180, up 23,062 from the year end of 2021." Wait, that number seems off: "up 23,062" probably means up 2,306? Actually, it says "up 23,062" but likely a typo. Anyway.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASM | Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-21 | C+ |
| KOPN | Kopin Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-14 | C+ |
| SCPH | scPharmaceuticals Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-08 | B |
| NBTX | Nanobiotix S.A. | Q2 2023 | 2023-09-27 | D |
| SWBI | Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2022-09-08 | C+ |
| YMM | Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-25 | C+ |
| VNRX | VolitionRx Limited | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-12 | F |
| OPK | OPKO Health, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-09 | D |
| BFIN | BankFinancial Corporation | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-06 | A |
| RNW | ReNew Energy Global Plc | Q2 2022 | 2021-11-18 | C |
| BFI | BurgerFi International, Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-12 | C |
| LIND | Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-08-06 | C |
| PLAB | Photronics, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-05-17 | C+ |
OPK · Q1 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management report that the MOST IMPORTANT POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS of the period happened SO LATE IN THE REPORTED PERIOD, OR SHORTLY AFTER IT ENDED, that the results being presented...YES The transcript shows management treating the ModeX acquisition (announced and closed on the call date, May 9) and the Sema4/GeneDx deal (closed April 29) as major positive developments that occurred after the Q1 period ended. These are framed as key steps toward unlocking value and are highlighted as the "exciting announcement" that changed the call format.
RNW · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management report that the MOST IMPORTANT POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS of the period happened SO LATE IN THE REPORTED PERIOD, OR SHORTLY AFTER IT ENDED, that the results being presented...YES The transcript shows management explicitly marking the timing of key positive developments: 400 MW commissioned "since the end of the quarter" (bringing operating capacity to 7 GW today, with another 400 MW scheduled "over the next couple of weeks"), plus the completed Telangana acquisition adding 260 MW.
ASM · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management report that the MOST IMPORTANT POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS of the period happened SO LATE IN THE REPORTED PERIOD, OR SHORTLY AFTER IT ENDED, that the results being presented...