After the books closed: the quarter's biggest news happened too late to be in the numbers
The model's full reasoning — Q2 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management reports that the most important positive developments happened so late in the reported period or shortly after it ended that the results contain little or none of their effect, with management itself marking the timing. We need to look for specific late-breaking positive events that management describes as occurring near the end of the quarter or after, and that they treat as the real story that the numbers missed. In the transcript, management discusses various positive developments. Let's scan for timing markers. Marcel Verbaas: "Momentum in our business picked up meaningfully since our last earnings call in early May." That's not necessarily late in the quarter. He says "As we reported this morning, RevPAR grew 2% in the second quarter as compared to 2019, marking the first quarter since the onset of the pandemic where quarterly RevPAR exceeded the same period in 2019." That's a general statement. He mentions "strong results in the months of April and June" - that's spread. He says "We are off to a solid start to the third quarter, which historically has been the seasonally weakest quarter for our current same-property portfolio. Preliminary RevPAR for the month of July was approximately $157... July estimated RevPAR was approximately 4% below the results achieved in July of 2019 and approximately 16% higher than July of 2021. Rate growth continues to be impressive as our estimated ADR exceeded July 2019 by approximately 18%. Midweek demand improved steadily after the 4th of July holiday caused business travel to be muted in the early part of the month." So they give July data, which is after the quarter. But is that a "most important positive development"? They are reporting on July as a preliminary, but they don't say that the second quarter results missed this. They are just giving an update. They also talk about group business: "group room revenue pace is strengthening, with 2022 pace 18% below 2019 levels at the end of June. This compares to 2022 group revenue pace of down 23% at the end of the first quarter." That's an improvement, but it's a pace, not a specific late event.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASM | Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-21 | C+ |
| KOPN | Kopin Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2024-03-14 | C+ |
| SCPH | scPharmaceuticals Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-08 | B |
| NBTX | Nanobiotix S.A. | Q2 2023 | 2023-09-27 | D |
| SWBI | Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. | Q1 2023 | 2022-09-08 | C+ |
| YMM | Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-25 | C+ |
| VNRX | VolitionRx Limited | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-12 | F |
| OPK | OPKO Health, Inc. | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-09 | D |
| BFIN | BankFinancial Corporation | Q1 2022 | 2022-05-06 | A |
| RNW | ReNew Energy Global Plc | Q2 2022 | 2021-11-18 | C |
| BFI | BurgerFi International, Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-12 | C |
| LIND | Lindblad Expeditions Holdings, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-08-06 | C |
| PLAB | Photronics, Inc. | Q2 2017 | 2017-05-17 | C+ |
OPK · Q1 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management report that the MOST IMPORTANT POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS of the period happened SO LATE IN THE REPORTED PERIOD, OR SHORTLY AFTER IT ENDED, that the results being presented...YES The transcript shows management treating the ModeX acquisition (announced and closed on the call date, May 9) and the Sema4/GeneDx deal (closed April 29) as major positive developments that occurred after the Q1 period ended. These are framed as key steps toward unlocking value and are highlighted as the "exciting announcement" that changed the call format.
RNW · Q2 2022 → YESThe question is: Does management report that the MOST IMPORTANT POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS of the period happened SO LATE IN THE REPORTED PERIOD, OR SHORTLY AFTER IT ENDED, that the results being presented...YES The transcript shows management explicitly marking the timing of key positive developments: 400 MW commissioned "since the end of the quarter" (bringing operating capacity to 7 GW today, with another 400 MW scheduled "over the next couple of weeks"), plus the completed Telangana acquisition adding 260 MW.
ASM · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is: Does management report that the MOST IMPORTANT POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS of the period happened SO LATE IN THE REPORTED PERIOD, OR SHORTLY AFTER IT ENDED, that the results being presented...