Already inside the gate: the company is specified into someone else's next wave, and the wave has not yet shipped
The model's full reasoning — Q3 2022 call → NOWe need to determine if management describes a situation where the company has already been chosen/specified/qualified into another organization's future product/program, and that wave has not yet arrived, and the position is large relative to the company. Let's examine the transcript. Key points: - The company is ICL Group, a specialty minerals company. - They discuss various segments: industrial products, potash, phosphate solutions, growing solutions. - They mention a $197 million award from U.S. Department of Energy to build a plant in St. Louis for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) material for energy storage. This is a significant investment. They say "This plant is expected to be operational by 2024" and will produce LFP material. This is a new plant, not yet operational. They are building it. This is a government award, so they have been chosen for this project. The wave is the energy storage market, and they are building capacity. But is this "inside someone else's next thing"? The Department of Energy is funding it, but it's their own plant. They are building their own capacity. The question is about being inside another organization's future product/program. Here, they are building their own plant, not necessarily being designed into another company's product. However, they also mention "We made our first entry into these markets in China through our YPH joint venture." That is existing. The St. Louis plant is for LFP material for energy storage industry. They are a supplier to that industry. But is there a specific counterparty that has chosen them? The DOE award is a grant, not a purchase order. They are building a plant to produce LFP material. That is more like they are expanding their own capacity to serve a market. The question asks: "the company has already been chosen, specified, qualified, designed in, or otherwise locked into position inside another organization's future product, program, platform, build-out, or standard operating plan." Here, the DOE award is a government program to develop sustainable supply chain. They have been awarded $197 million to invest in their efforts. That could be seen as being chosen for a program. But the wave is the energy storage market, which is still developing. They are building the plant, so the volume is not yet arriving.
| Ticker | Company | Call | Date | Call grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC | NACCO Industries, Inc. | Q1 2024 | 2024-05-05 | C+ |
| CLGN | CollPlant Biotechnologies Ltd. | Q4 2023 | 2024-04-04 | F |
| EMKR | EMCORE Corporation | Q4 2023 | 2023-12-12 | C+ |
| AIRG | Airgain, Inc. | Q3 2023 | 2023-11-09 | F |
| EVGO | EVgo, Inc. | Q2 2022 | 2022-08-09 | C+ |
| GFS | GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. | Q3 2021 | 2021-11-30 | A |
| CUBI | Customers Bancorp, Inc. | Q3 2018 | 2018-10-26 | C+ |
| WYY | WidePoint Corporation | Q3 2016 | 2016-11-09 | D |
| THRM | Gentherm Incorporated | Q2 2016 | 2016-07-28 | C+ |
| GOGO | Gogo Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-05-06 | C+ |
| SPR | Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. | Q1 2016 | 2016-04-29 | D |
CUBI · Q3 2018 → YESThe question is about whether management describes that the company has already been chosen or locked into another organization's future product/program, such that volume will come automatically when ...NO The transcript describes a white-label partnership with T-Mobile where BankMobile provides services under T-Mobile's brand, with deposits expected to start in the next year after the launch. However, this does not meet the criteria for a secured position inside T-Mobile's next product or program. The language focuses on a partnership relationship that is still being launched, rather than a design win or qualification already embedded in T-Mobile's future offering. Management refers to it as an "expected white label partnership" and "working on" the launch, indicating it is not yet locked in as part of T-Mobile's committed plan.
EMKR · Q4 2023 → YESThe question is about whether management describes that the company has already been chosen or locked into another organization's future product/program, such that volume will come automatically when ...NO The transcript describes an agreement with Kratos for Inertial Navigation Systems to be included in the XQ58 Valkyrie drone, with the Air Force planning to acquire at least 1,000 units. However, this is framed as an announcement of a new agreement rather than a secured, locked-in position already designed 100% into the platform with volume guaranteed.
NC · Q1 2024 → YESThe question is about whether management describes that the company has already been chosen or locked into another organization's future product/program, such that volume will arrive automatically whe...